{ "ticker": { "symbol": "VER", "name": "Verve Group SE", "exchange": "STO" }, "latest_week": "2026-09-11", "latest_close": 11.5, "latest_open": 11.92, "latest_high": 12.3, "latest_low": 11.5, "bar_count": 118, "analysis_bar_count": 118, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-09-11", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-05-23", "price": 42.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 53, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 28.040001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.23809285714286, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-07-18", 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-0.7258938362445071 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.6967459626778982 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.6435706338997191 }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": -0.6457386549875334 }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": -0.8946459004171401 }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": -1.0698325179130137 }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": -1.192222753842958 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.94; Wave B 19.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.31; C length 7.73.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.5, "confirmation": 19.23, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.94; Wave 2 19.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 13.63; Wave 3 11.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 77% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 19.23, "confirmation": 11.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 32 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.94; Wave B 19.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.31; C length 7.73.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.5, "confirmation": 19.23, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.94; Wave B 19.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.31; C length 7.73.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.5, "confirmation": 19.23, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.94; Wave B 19.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.31; C length 7.73.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.5, "confirmation": 19.23, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 20.940001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.217510766555932, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 13.63, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.90926767386495, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -25.225949300462744, "fair_value_gap": -56.13567335403119, "market_activity": -21.986234, "market_dynamics": -0.661235, "relative_strength": -40.058614, "roc30": -16.967509025270758, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 25.2% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -25.71059431524548 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -31.62901307966706 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -27.53623188405797 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -46.211410019242756 } ], "range": { "high_52": 26.860001, "low_52": 10.6, "position_52": 5.5350550101442195, "drawdown": -57.185407401883566 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 55.846929146208105, "average_weekly_range": 9.501790906964983, "active_drawdown": -75.45357419225503 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 15.379667, "fair_value": 26.217204, "trend_gap": -25.225949300462744, "fair_value_gap": -56.13567335403119 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.23, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.08584005869405, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-09-11", "price": 11.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -40.19760790431617, "weeks": 15, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "25.2% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-40.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-22.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-17.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 118, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 111.17250718718195, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 40, "positive_rate": 47.5, "median_return": -0.2, "bar_width": 1.0, "average_return": -4.17, "best_return": 19.08, "worst_return": -36.15 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 29.4, "median_return": -18.28, "bar_width": 91.4, "average_return": -11.78, "best_return": 28.8, "worst_return": -37.22 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 16.7, "median_return": -25.35, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -22.32, "best_return": 11.77, "worst_return": -50.66 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.23, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 29, "rising_cycle_count": 11, "rising_cycle_percent": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 665, "positive_rate": 47.2, "median_return": -0.67, "average_return": 0.53, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 665, "p10": -13.21, "p90": 15.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 249, "positive_rate": 49.8, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 9.95, "median_excess_return": -2.4, "excess_observations": 249, "p10": -23.69, "p90": 28.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 136, "positive_rate": 49.3, "median_return": -0.09, "average_return": 9.11, "median_excess_return": -4.72, "excess_observations": 136, "p10": -34.5, "p90": 32.21 } ], "benchmark": "^OMX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 26, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 25.2% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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