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1.4907560250276668 }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "value": 1.5038090952428045 }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "value": 1.4754338660838184 }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "value": 1.3726207257677825 }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "value": 1.2480913581684665 }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": 1.1765824937771983 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": 1.0361498103580087 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": 1.0631988883940617 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 1.061930151731947 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 1.0625196442159306 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 0.9963036912541343 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 0.9142321940378826 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 0.8497624708590932 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 0.6973666122179657 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 0.3060557004893351 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": 0.06557158178085859 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": -0.09473960956251748 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": -0.22112553474136112 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": 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"2025-08-08", "value": 0.39901808121374344 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 0.4694466934647713 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 0.5403713955881304 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 0.5662236703463275 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 0.568282075789949 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.6450985100018741 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 0.7177534349455957 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.7348339607880949 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.8021486308009683 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.7997217884405201 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.7593482771890283 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.8069521413779288 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.9475125521369567 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.9055505413003468 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.9101848320080279 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.8586637057987828 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.9370963788888669 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 1.000145916990458 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.9441674466761951 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.9077453914338651 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.9133206560609184 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.8743504676493011 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.9410162752839631 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.9771944484139129 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.8994308015952445 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.7746042090697205 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.6468605739521998 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.4914927075220333 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.4586381229687017 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.40371305896945664 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.46012401009675685 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.4355308755176016 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.2818217145530716 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.059256725861843745 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.03539134204195646 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.12413091611811838 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.42954393616711606 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.6647160141092234 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.7960910980874099 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.9735174509030805 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1241034723897891 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2670191719124855 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.3729362721725993 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.3834665764491039 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.308321491797428 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2947026920795401 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.2323767132552033 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.2891650773089327 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.3772741855110717 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.392914091462847 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.3777188189412302 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.3414794538688253 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave 2 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.88; Wave 3 35.38.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.76\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.457652497503087, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.83, "confirmation": 35.375, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 65, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave B 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.28; C length 5.55.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.76\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.457652497503087, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.375, "confirmation": 29.83, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave 2 28.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.53; Wave 3 32.88.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 29.53; Wave 4 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.94, 4.51, 5.55.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 32.88; Wave 5 35.38.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.15\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 29.534781, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.404043551663827, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2025-05-23", "price": 28.361542, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.9723978315600132, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.915862402686004, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 29.83, "confirmation": 35.375, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave 2 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.88; Wave 3 35.38.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.76\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.457652497503087, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.83, "confirmation": 35.375, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave 2 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.88; Wave 3 35.38.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.76\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.457652497503087, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.83, "confirmation": 35.375, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.59; Wave 2 28.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.53; Wave 3 32.88.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 29.53; Wave 4 29.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.94, 4.51, 5.55.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 32.88; Wave 5 35.38.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.15\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 29.534781, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.404043551663827, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2025-05-23", "price": 28.361542, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.9723978315600132, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.915862402686004, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 29.83, "confirmation": 35.375, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 25.592501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.61997906578982, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 32.875526, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.457652497503087, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.602521731997609, "fair_value_gap": 21.754020601709573, "market_activity": 53.367334, "market_dynamics": 1.088883, "relative_strength": 3.257783, "roc30": 10.083163434427897, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 6.6% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.46426841687482406 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.115814860510832 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.207171053353376 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 19.012806349897584 } ], "range": { "high_52": 35.994999, "low_52": 29.705, "position_52": 90.14309859190757, "drawdown": -1.7224587226686685 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.557424222407548, "average_weekly_range": 1.4179564039704804, "active_drawdown": -1.2974330357142951 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 33.184018, "fair_value": 29.054482, "trend_gap": 6.602521731997609, "fair_value_gap": 21.754020601709573 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 137, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.83, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.26380919350158, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.588669125041914, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+53.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 86, "history_score": 60, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 156, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 169.48554076480352, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 49, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 48, "positive_rate": 56.2, "median_return": 0.4, "bar_width": 2.0, "average_return": -0.04, "best_return": 7.99, "worst_return": -10.82 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -2.92, "bar_width": 14.6, "average_return": -3.69, "best_return": 10.59, "worst_return": -20.95 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 38.9, "median_return": -5.0, "bar_width": 25.0, "average_return": -1.73, "best_return": 10.6, "worst_return": -14.25 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 35.38, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 29.83; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.674911660777392, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 1, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 5, "explanation": "Price is 6.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 61, "explanation": "Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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