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0.6983833147494911 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.6615379176294811 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.6376300683553366 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.5347626769267737 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.34069819656363487 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.13320937444616338 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.11349134829071009 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.25836876192790703 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5472294204862136 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.7962954763055211 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9212291981451295 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.091007579135695 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2428335395423444 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.3801088009507436 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.4592360089502692 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.4646247113932962 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.4855780013424131 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.5694885512791223 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.5402296146144012 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.5383132425765813 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.556329342075639 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4826817660735814 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.45295678114017 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.355315483178622 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.4332896441322556 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.19; Wave B 28.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.58; C length 6.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 23.190001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.748974508659277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 34.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.93531048144416, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.44204774230659, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.959999, "confirmation": 28.01, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.19; Wave 2 28.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 34.77; Wave 3 34.96.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.60\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 23.190001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.748974508659277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 34.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.93531048144416, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.44204774230659, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 28.01, "confirmation": 34.959999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.19; Wave B 28.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.58; C length 6.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 23.190001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.748974508659277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 34.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.93531048144416, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.44204774230659, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.959999, "confirmation": 28.01, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 81, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 23.190001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.748974508659277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 34.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.93531048144416, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.44204774230659, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 10.693628587276336, "fair_value_gap": 23.708602114695296, "market_activity": 48.768592, "market_dynamics": 0.470488, "relative_strength": 5.389906, "roc30": 14.830018065363781, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 10.7% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.820300038453474 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 8.386290237597585 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 18.028351855896307 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.40274973526299 } ], "range": { "high_52": 34.959999, "low_52": 27.915001, "position_52": 100.0, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.137597228384795, "average_weekly_range": 2.320801827693708, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.984565393988618, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 31.582666, "fair_value": 28.259958, "trend_gap": 10.693628587276336, "fair_value_gap": 23.708602114695296 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.984565393988618, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 24.81256337022492, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "10.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.4", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+48.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 122.07977564664347, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 62.9, "median_return": 1.26, "bar_width": 6.3, "average_return": 0.95, "best_return": 20.77, "worst_return": -17.67 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 70.4, "median_return": 1.98, "bar_width": 9.9, "average_return": 2.41, "best_return": 14.53, "worst_return": -13.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 81.0, "median_return": 10.56, "bar_width": 52.800000000000004, "average_return": 7.7, "best_return": 16.22, "worst_return": -9.12 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 28.01, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 34.96; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 53, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 7, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 36, "explanation": "Price is 10.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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