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            "price": 1780.34,
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            "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 1679.92,
        "confirmation": 1867.31,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.963419166468285,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,629.00; Wave 2 1,780.34.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 1629.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.58185813191825,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1867.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 14.629220380601591,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1780.34,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1629.0,
          "confirmation": 1867.31,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.727136979042678,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,679.92; Wave 2 1,780.34.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 272,
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "price": 1679.92,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.90199991323586,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1867.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.154697842754407,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1780.34,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1679.92,
          "confirmation": 1867.31,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.1089958853298745,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,679.92; Wave 2 1,780.34.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 272,
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "price": 1679.92,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.90199991323586,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1867.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.154697842754407,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1780.34,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1679.92,
          "confirmation": 1867.31,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": 7,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence",
    "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 272,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 1679.92,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.90199991323586,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1867.31,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.154697842754407,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1780.34,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.",
      "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.",
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 7.837366409083273,
      "fair_value_gap": 75.97013306258454,
      "market_activity": 20.032881,
      "market_dynamics": -0.586656,
      "relative_strength": 7.830299,
      "roc30": 32.59205155924674,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 7.8% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.830713066007181
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -0.810967422156334
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 20.69959539432461
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 91.17853874056162
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 1997.262729,
      "low_52": 942.750506,
      "position_52": 79.42909297126278,
      "drawdown": -10.861001201810346
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 38.66861145037717,
      "average_weekly_range": 7.3341443482774356,
      "active_drawdown": -7.7391070021972626
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 272,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 1679.92,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.90199991323586,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1867.31,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.154697842754407,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 272,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 1679.92,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.90199991323586,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 1650.949072,
      "fair_value": 1011.728507,
      "trend_gap": 7.837366409083273,
      "fair_value_gap": 75.97013306258454
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1867.31,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.154697842754407,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1780.34,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -4.6575019680717205,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "7.8% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+7.8",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+20.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+32.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 6,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 41
    },
    "volume_ratio": 92.0024410781881,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 101,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 100,
          "positive_rate": 65.0,
          "median_return": 4.09,
          "bar_width": 20.45,
          "average_return": 3.58,
          "best_return": 32.05,
          "worst_return": -24.53
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 91,
          "positive_rate": 67.0,
          "median_return": 6.76,
          "bar_width": 33.8,
          "average_return": 8.27,
          "best_return": 52.25,
          "worst_return": -26.66
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 78,
          "positive_rate": 57.7,
          "median_return": 4.65,
          "bar_width": 23.25,
          "average_return": 12.1,
          "best_return": 95.28,
          "worst_return": -33.24
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 1,867.31, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1679.92; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 15,
      "constructive_percent": 68,
      "rising_cycle_count": 13,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 59,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 168,
          "positive_rate": 66.1,
          "median_return": 4.49,
          "average_return": 5.27,
          "median_excess_return": 2.13,
          "excess_observations": 168,
          "p10": -9.45,
          "p90": 18.94
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 100,
          "positive_rate": 65.0,
          "median_return": 4.73,
          "average_return": 6.97,
          "median_excess_return": 2.02,
          "excess_observations": 100,
          "p10": -19.71,
          "p90": 30.04
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 80,
          "positive_rate": 73.8,
          "median_return": 15.54,
          "average_return": 22.83,
          "median_excess_return": 5.51,
          "excess_observations": 80,
          "p10": -18.08,
          "p90": 65.16
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "QQQ",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-14",
      "earnings_weeks": 1,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "mixed",
      "options_conviction": 14.03,
      "expected_move": 2.17547932,
      "invalidation_distance": 5.64049563566509,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 1 week."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 30,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 14,
          "explanation": "Price is 7.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 18,
          "explanation": "Price is 79% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 1 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has low recent stability.",
        "Earnings are about 1 week(s) away."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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    "close": [
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