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harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. 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"2025-01-10", "value": 0.40667715545244737 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": -0.0019847117219732808 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 0.33790831679595756 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 0.7489328632379542 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 1.0547410622555495 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 1.3037115244108204 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 1.2000201210634867 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 0.6002036391444514 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 0.10927716027940458 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": 0.26686345217209784 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": 0.4626493880557725 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": 0.5122114954788526 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": -0.28020222134658734 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": -0.4942197994083356 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -0.21593920681428672 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": 0.08189581317031572 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": 0.596794168597359 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": 1.1283912645800722 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": 1.6635030008170526 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": 1.9692343860235957 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": 2.197399782907742 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": 2.3537390099028963 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": 2.4718829373529267 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": 2.5720191026057497 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 2.6614477620441983 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 2.732596088847558 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 2.7130368433813348 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 2.6279749470890312 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 2.6160876624433596 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 2.48637999926149 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 2.4262290210925777 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 2.5349449672974593 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 2.4814379547631775 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 2.2688841689469816 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 2.082144413864855 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 2.1097233475726487 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 2.1845768173295363 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 2.103090890529307 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.8338623015195177 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.752559309983639 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.5887486121655465 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.6157227957545746 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.5104988194152427 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.3538228014579017 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.2740759622331208 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 1.1880332879292546 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 1.317550165307922 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 1.140801935422242 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.9528696906683863 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.82597786890764 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.9272595102356674 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.9042436445207144 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.1123091882517984 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.3083687171908323 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.8532824693634717 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.8148131327059275 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.7801377563189944 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.0938556848044376 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.4630570515677304 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.8427421964465496 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.634179500488354 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.3019383642335292 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.7700472081926286 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.43204099767229387 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.22551865610978428 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.4064861907377012 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5972325087650527 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.1533372944908391 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.16697011627933722 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.1943011377936346 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.49405276905892487 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.4843209801963956 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.38590832539999886 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.371592131434313 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.3381958857747463 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.4260467905979466 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.1327088114528054 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.4382345418599036 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.7931273088748989 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1410991111678417 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9144655731571186 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1136.00; Wave 2 1190.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1136.0, "confirmation": 1214.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1255.00; Wave B 1214.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 119.00; C length 24.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.20\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 1255.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.511343804537521, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 1190.0, "confirmation": 1214.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1136.00; Wave 2 1190.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1237.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.890845070422536, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.799514955537591, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1136.0, "confirmation": 1237.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1136.00; Wave 2 1190.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1136.0, "confirmation": 1214.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1136.00; Wave 2 1190.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1237.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.890845070422536, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.799514955537591, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1136.0, "confirmation": 1237.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.6370862883697748, "fair_value_gap": 10.170397359580345, "market_activity": 51.412224, "market_dynamics": 0.715255, "relative_strength": -17.26032, "roc30": 0.847457627118644, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 0.6% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.1904761904761905 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.9411764705882355 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.8394415357766145 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 1.7094017094017093 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1267.0, "low_52": 1126.0, "position_52": 45.39007092198582, "drawdown": -6.077348066298343 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.419683741444757, "average_weekly_range": 2.942570041175882, "active_drawdown": -5.179282868525896 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 140, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1136.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.48207171314741, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 1182.466667, "fair_value": 1080.144965, "trend_gap": 0.6370862883697748, "fair_value_gap": 10.170397359580345 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1214.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.866197183098592, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 150, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1190.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -1.9769357495881383, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-17.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+51.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 58, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 151, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 5.294555391540911, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 34, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 52.9, "median_return": 0.25, "bar_width": 1.25, "average_return": 0.17, "best_return": 5.87, "worst_return": -6.61 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 58.8, "median_return": 1.2, "bar_width": 6.0, "average_return": 1.17, "best_return": 9.36, "worst_return": -7.73 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 86.7, "median_return": 6.22, "bar_width": 31.099999999999998, "average_return": 5.62, "best_return": 12.99, "worst_return": -3.47 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 1214.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1136.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 849, "positive_rate": 61.4, "median_return": 1.33, "average_return": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 849, "p10": -5.07, "p90": 6.55 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 303, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.44, "average_return": 3.22, "median_excess_return": 0.25, "excess_observations": 303, "p10": -6.95, "p90": 15.41 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 164, "positive_rate": 59.8, "median_return": 3.25, "average_return": 6.16, "median_excess_return": 0.85, "excess_observations": 164, "p10": -9.87, "p90": 28.85 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.53781512605042, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 5, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 45% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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