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-1.3253586449837247 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.3053435161387297 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.2758547780440987 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.2477812306583127 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.2054849514287433 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.1560142880058595 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -1.0274285343776435 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.6078804017460722 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.31912327006410446 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.14036552833733096 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.07001102340239485 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.05297446544897383 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.33806769799862113 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8508495780583608 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.2680744851420802 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.425278830430283 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.393947029354125 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.72; Wave 2 208.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 149.715546, "confirmation": 236.569748, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.72; Wave 2 208.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 149.715546, "confirmation": 236.569748, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 16.518494757783802, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 16.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.324059223614876, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.72; Wave 2 208.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 149.715546, "confirmation": 236.569748, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.226841456530413, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.72; Wave 2 208.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 149.715546, "confirmation": 236.569748, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 18.362584749317826, "fair_value_gap": 13.676291315805205, "market_activity": 97.201621, "market_dynamics": 1.323788, "relative_strength": -14.709254, "roc30": 6.764044235135813, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 18.4% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.4515582880870017 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 35.881513254140856 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 18.43223978829828 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 32.557189744241406 } ], "range": { "high_52": 248.566182, "low_52": 141.078109, "position_52": 62.25982951615478, "drawdown": -16.320072856894104 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 40.38902316376915, "average_weekly_range": 9.473527938867713, "active_drawdown": -14.014427560538838 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 149.715546, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.35714200987286, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 175.731208, "fair_value": 182.975709, "trend_gap": 18.362584749317826, "fair_value_gap": 13.676291315805205 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 236.569748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.01281451426563, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -12.076670090547674, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "18.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-14.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+97.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 109, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 74.15590388738902, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 24, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 56.5, "median_return": 1.15, "bar_width": 5.75, "average_return": 5.45, "best_return": 30.08, "worst_return": -10.48 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 42.1, "median_return": -12.98, "bar_width": 64.9, "average_return": -5.04, "best_return": 23.26, "worst_return": -22.66 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 10.5, "median_return": -9.3, "bar_width": 46.5, "average_return": -9.01, "best_return": 27.06, "worst_return": -28.57 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 236.57, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 149.72; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 13, "rising_cycle_percent": 54, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 617, "positive_rate": 47.2, "median_return": -0.46, "average_return": 1.11, "median_excess_return": -1.4, "excess_observations": 617, "p10": -9.35, "p90": 12.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 234, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.23, "average_return": 3.65, "median_excess_return": -3.63, "excess_observations": 234, "p10": -16.57, "p90": 26.39 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 139, "positive_rate": 53.2, "median_return": 1.33, "average_return": 5.45, "median_excess_return": -6.91, "excess_observations": 139, "p10": -23.65, "p90": 34.42 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 28.021372115384622, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 19, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "Price is 18.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 62% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 18.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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