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Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.66; Wave 2 26.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 2% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.661999, "confirmation": 26.448999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 44, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.1810681656746906, "fair_value_gap": -21.2879306971704, "market_activity": -40.578462, "market_dynamics": 0.535705, "relative_strength": -21.820802, "roc30": 0.5936028051571953, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.872343612499769 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.8681805789824218 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.2905965660334247 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -25.393971885872133 } ], "range": { "high_52": 35.661999, "low_52": 25.9, "position_52": 7.232135549286578, "drawdown": -25.393971885872133 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 6.618678084177931, "average_weekly_range": 0.28225311516619, "active_drawdown": -35.42702801803335 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 244, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 35.661999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 26.295434, "fair_value": 33.801679, "trend_gap": 1.1810681656746906, "fair_value_gap": -21.2879306971704 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 26.448999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.834222024401942, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 26.606001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 0.5936028051571953, "weeks": 30, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-21.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-40.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 115.74074074074075, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 11, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 10.0, "median_return": -0.37, "bar_width": 1.85, "average_return": -0.4, "best_return": 0.74, "worst_return": -1.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -1.58, "bar_width": 7.9, "average_return": -1.58, "best_return": -1.58, "worst_return": -1.58 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 26.45, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 35.66; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 260, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.11, "average_return": -0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 260, "p10": -14.22, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.53, "average_return": -1.35, "median_excess_return": -0.84, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -31.75, "p90": 15.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 43.9, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -5.25, "median_excess_return": -4.94, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -61.94, "p90": 24.04 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 34.03742636858505, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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