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      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
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      ],
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        {
          "index": 238,
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          "weeks": 29,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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          "confirmed": false,
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      "evidence_weight": 50
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
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            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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          {
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          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 8.69; Wave 2 5.51.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 238,
              "date": "2026-01-09",
              "price": 8.69,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 38.1558028616852,
              "weeks": 29,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 4.69,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -46.02991944764096,
              "weeks": 23,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 5.51,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 17.484008528784635,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 8.69,
          "confirmation": 4.69,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 8.679496354176756,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 8.69; Wave 2 5.51.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 238,
              "date": "2026-01-09",
              "price": 8.69,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 27.232796486090766,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 4.69,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -46.02991944764096,
              "weeks": 23,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 5.51,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 17.484008528784635,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 8.69,
          "confirmation": 4.69,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 52,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 238,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 8.69,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 38.1558028616852,
        "weeks": 29,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 4.69,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -46.02991944764096,
        "weeks": 23,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 5.51,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 17.484008528784635,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -1.83502583288795,
      "fair_value_gap": -9.859505159766261,
      "market_activity": -1.555875,
      "market_dynamics": 1.12247,
      "relative_strength": -5.412355,
      "roc30": -20.605187319884735,
      "hurst_alignment": 46,
      "hurst_risk": 64
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.8% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -4.173913043478264
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 12.678936605316977
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -9.967320261437912
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -14.70588235294118
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 9.87,
      "low_52": 4.57,
      "position_52": 17.735849056603765,
      "drawdown": -44.17426545086119
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    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 30.872413380842406,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.216631401272628,
      "active_drawdown": -41.34236767327848
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 4.69,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -46.02991944764096,
        "weeks": 23,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 238,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 8.69,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 38.1558028616852,
        "weeks": 29,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 238,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 8.69,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 38.1558028616852,
        "weeks": 29,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 5.613,
      "fair_value": 6.11268,
      "trend_gap": -1.83502583288795,
      "fair_value_gap": -9.859505159766261
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 4.69,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -46.02991944764096,
        "weeks": 23,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 5.51,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 17.484008528784635,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 17.484008528784635,
      "weeks": 14,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "1.8% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Trough Cluster",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-5.4",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.6",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-20.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 3,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 16
    },
    "volume_ratio": 62.974194247965634,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 50,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 49,
          "positive_rate": 46.9,
          "median_return": -0.9,
          "bar_width": 4.5,
          "average_return": 3.29,
          "best_return": 36.28,
          "worst_return": -14.62
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 44,
          "positive_rate": 54.5,
          "median_return": 2.68,
          "bar_width": 13.4,
          "average_return": 13.0,
          "best_return": 91.06,
          "worst_return": -24.15
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 44,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.65,
          "bar_width": 3.25,
          "average_return": 11.32,
          "best_return": 85.17,
          "worst_return": -38.79
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is trough cluster.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 4.69, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 8.69; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 29,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 172,
          "positive_rate": 46.5,
          "median_return": -0.28,
          "average_return": 0.89,
          "median_excess_return": -1.01,
          "excess_observations": 172,
          "p10": -11.04,
          "p90": 12.28
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 101,
          "positive_rate": 51.5,
          "median_return": 1.33,
          "average_return": 6.11,
          "median_excess_return": -2.42,
          "excess_observations": 101,
          "p10": -21.65,
          "p90": 39.87
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 53.3,
          "median_return": 2.75,
          "average_return": 9.95,
          "median_excess_return": 0.19,
          "excess_observations": 90,
          "p10": -19.0,
          "p90": 34.57
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 57.71324863883848,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 12,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 1.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 18% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 64/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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