{ "ticker": { "symbol": "MSSS", "name": "MONARCH SELECT SUBSECTOR INDEX ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 35.3593, "latest_open": 35.67, "latest_high": 35.71, "latest_low": 35.23, "bar_count": 125, "analysis_bar_count": 125, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 26.859289, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 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1.7700740183864163 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.5953756148365952 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.41; Wave 2 29.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.18; Wave 3 35.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.79\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.23, "confirmation": 35.3593, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 66, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.41; Wave B 29.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.78; C length 6.13.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.79\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.3593, "confirmation": 29.23, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 20 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.41; Wave 2 29.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.18; Wave 3 35.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.79\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.23, "confirmation": 35.3593, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.41; Wave 2 29.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.18; Wave 3 35.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.79\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.23, "confirmation": 35.3593, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.41; Wave 2 29.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.18; Wave 3 35.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.79\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.23, "confirmation": 35.3593, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.4054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.136090683562028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.183963, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.872302851008374, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.255406624204753, "fair_value_gap": 22.05185939816885, "market_activity": 86.842365, "market_dynamics": 1.285754, "relative_strength": 3.696849, "roc30": 16.138309012452062, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 8.3% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.152767031688585 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 8.988660146533459 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.533372006938889 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 20.621203307651687 } ], "range": { "high_52": 36.6, "low_52": 28.17622, "position_52": 85.27145770663522, "drawdown": -3.389890710382524 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.920917146292739, "average_weekly_range": 2.263510374718741, "active_drawdown": -2.7810771278058364 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 32.662849, "fair_value": 28.970718, "trend_gap": 8.255406624204753, "fair_value_gap": 22.05185939816885 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.23, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.178369363648592, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 35.3593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.96920971604515, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+86.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 0, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 58.03600636308067, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 37, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 72.2, "median_return": 2.02, "bar_width": 10.1, "average_return": 1.3, "best_return": 6.94, "worst_return": -9.18 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 77.8, "median_return": 4.28, "bar_width": 21.400000000000002, "average_return": 3.81, "best_return": 8.81, "worst_return": -2.44 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 6.12, "bar_width": 30.6, "average_return": 5.04, "best_return": 12.72, "worst_return": -4.03 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 35.36, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 29.23; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 17.33433636978107, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 3, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 17, "explanation": "Price is 8.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 41, "explanation": "Price is 85% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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