{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7756", "name": "DONUTES", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 38.799999, "latest_open": 38.700001, "latest_high": 38.799999, "latest_low": 37.0, "bar_count": 105, "analysis_bar_count": 105, "reversal_percent": 7.896790929407732, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 4, "date": "2024-08-30", "price": 64.848877, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 25, "date": "2025-01-24", "price": 46.116867, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.885635135979303, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 31, 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"2026-05-15", "value": -1.3483274865744388 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.3287995968680897 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -1.357628033364747 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.4260011839019966 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.6197121606125373 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.8644015268880854 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.9194255302458203 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.942580448354724 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -2.0757271875541328 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -2.138495827836701 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -2.0297121908885383 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.927038924302327 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.7829646119907012 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.678489844063249 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 51.52; Wave 2 51.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.88; Wave 3 38.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.64\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 60, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 51.518539, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.823537147353886, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 66, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 46.879894, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.003836463607785, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 51.025066, "confirmation": 38.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 44 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 51.52; Wave B 51.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.64; C length 12.23.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 2.64\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 60, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 51.518539, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.823537147353886, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 66, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 46.879894, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.003836463607785, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 38.799999, "confirmation": 51.025066, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 51.03; Wave 2 49.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.09; Wave 3 38.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.08\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 46.09034, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.671180043157621, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 72, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 49.051174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.423979515013354, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.89893913650263, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 49.051174, "confirmation": 38.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 44 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 12.634865487052373, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.896790929407732, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 51.52; Wave 2 51.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.88; Wave 3 38.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.64\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 60, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 51.518539, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.823537147353886, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 66, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 46.879894, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.003836463607785, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 51.025066, "confirmation": 38.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 44 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.527753650585412, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 51.03; Wave 2 49.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.09; Wave 3 38.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.08\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 46.09034, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.671180043157621, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 72, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 49.051174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.423979515013354, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.89893913650263, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 49.051174, "confirmation": 38.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 44 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 73, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 60, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 51.518539, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.823537147353886, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 66, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 46.879894, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.003836463607785, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -8.79556120208205, "fair_value_gap": -19.224208039140116, "market_activity": -75.060472, "market_dynamics": -0.827718, "relative_strength": -39.861957, "roc30": -20.257143999262592, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 8.8% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.02144782899324 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -10.651756992945197 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -15.546232507540168 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -13.597305892668341 } ], "range": { "high_52": 51.617229, "low_52": 35.776761, "position_52": 19.08553459405365, "drawdown": -24.831301967023457 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 20.362893482872412, "average_weekly_range": 5.9300203193802785, "active_drawdown": -47.68586672709939 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 42.541788, "fair_value": 48.034192, "trend_gap": -8.79556120208205, "fair_value_gap": -19.224208039140116 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 69, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 51.025066, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.842110436512511, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 38.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -23.958944021748064, "weeks": 35, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "8.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-39.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-75.1", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-20.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 40, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 105, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 12.982778374400594, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 18, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 17.6, "median_return": -2.82, "bar_width": 14.1, "average_return": -3.29, "best_return": 4.29, "worst_return": -10.36 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -10.5, "bar_width": 52.5, "average_return": -11.34, "best_return": -8.12, "worst_return": -15.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 38.80, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 51.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 630, "positive_rate": 43.7, "median_return": -0.51, "average_return": -0.37, "median_excess_return": -1.87, "excess_observations": 630, "p10": -7.04, "p90": 5.68 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 228, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -0.93, "average_return": -1.38, "median_excess_return": -7.15, "excess_observations": 228, "p10": -11.94, "p90": 7.1 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 128, "positive_rate": 43.8, "median_return": -1.54, "average_return": -1.89, "median_excess_return": -8.21, "excess_observations": 128, "p10": -20.13, "p90": 14.52 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 31.507905451234688, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 4, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 8.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 19% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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