{ "ticker": { "symbol": "MXUE", "name": "InvescoMI MSCI USA ETF R", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 7.2742, "latest_open": 7.0644, "latest_high": 7.2928, "latest_low": 7.056, "bar_count": 125, "analysis_bar_count": 125, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 5.3698, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.9706, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.434168870348982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 95, "date": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7470491243909294 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6519558713798778 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8252049475503874 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.97; Wave 2 6.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 6.58; Wave 3 7.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.77\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.9706, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.434168870348982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.5838, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.45483442642739, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.2742, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.0396, "confirmation": 7.2742, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 65, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.97; Wave B 6.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.61; C length 1.23.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.77\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.9706, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.434168870348982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.5838, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.45483442642739, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.2742, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.2742, "confirmation": 6.0396, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 32 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.97; Wave 2 6.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 6.58; Wave 3 7.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.77\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.9706, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.434168870348982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.5838, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.45483442642739, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.2742, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.0396, "confirmation": 7.2742, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.9706, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.434168870348982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.5838, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.45483442642739, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.2742, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.19228366600233, "fair_value_gap": 22.41309733643559, "market_activity": 38.939945, "market_dynamics": 0.053743, "relative_strength": 2.30684, "roc30": 10.577040009728812, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 8.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.6443528814133352 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.897182245551305 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.731998033914978 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 19.307856322781696 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7.2928, "low_52": 6.0062, "position_52": 98.55432923985704, "drawdown": -0.25504607283895464 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.337657265100935, "average_weekly_range": 1.519887625151571, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 6.7234, "fair_value": 5.942338, "trend_gap": 8.19228366600233, "fair_value_gap": 22.41309733643559 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.0396, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.265743187824661, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.2742, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.441751109344995, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+38.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 10.362792294972023, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 40, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 56.4, "median_return": 0.17, "bar_width": 0.8500000000000001, "average_return": 0.22, "best_return": 5.76, "worst_return": -6.78 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 2.6, "bar_width": 13.0, "average_return": 2.04, "best_return": 9.98, "worst_return": -7.62 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 84.0, "median_return": 6.3, "bar_width": 31.5, "average_return": 5.15, "best_return": 12.93, "worst_return": -4.53 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 7.27, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.04; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 16.97231310659592, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 3, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 17, "explanation": "Price is 8.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 94, "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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