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"2026-01-23", "value": 1.0508441116061327 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.930292335913026 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.7402700374123792 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.6407085934833372 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.5549846231892096 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.45863826099986693 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.36975523664195137 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.2751393448935322 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0936764702158916 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.05873260762768795 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.15793964878444836 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.27626737732773327 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.10537050824965133 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.10259700970700503 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.03950524206283676 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.17612293704591814 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.28771975574374953 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.34012321000076284 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.41384537271176025 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.16575168901877574 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.04793033554530174 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.0407466551778682 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.19578254832157316 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.23310623488322818 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.1709541412706095 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.2495438412314095 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.6801398894516457 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.49; Wave B 19.99.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.59; C length 6.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.49, "confirmation": 19.988164, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.49; Wave 2 19.99.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 15.90; Wave 3 13.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 19.988164, "confirmation": 13.49, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.49; Wave B 19.99.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.59; C length 6.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.49, "confirmation": 19.988164, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 17.578869813480278, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 17.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.986793633425172, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.49; Wave B 19.99.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.59; C length 6.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.49, "confirmation": 19.988164, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.6907555433976205, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.49; Wave B 19.99.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.59; C length 6.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.49, "confirmation": 19.988164, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 53, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 112, "date": "2025-12-19", "price": 22.489484, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.10866120964532, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.896405, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.316275108846433, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -26.341892106979525, "fair_value_gap": -13.19765055832121, "market_activity": -18.175288, "market_dynamics": -0.072196, "relative_strength": -33.416605, "roc30": -39.42321742376868, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 26.3% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -19.698537953840162 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -20.93934142764443 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -36.330302344220094 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -12.816977177824151 } ], "range": { "high_52": 23.184517, "low_52": 13.25, "position_52": 2.41581951090325, "drawdown": -41.814617056719364 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 47.32457641626828, "average_weekly_range": 10.966152837567929, "active_drawdown": -40.01640944718874 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 12.310963, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.499568372278446, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 12.310963, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.499568372278446, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 18.314345, "fair_value": 15.541054, "trend_gap": -26.341892106979525, "fair_value_gap": -13.19765055832121 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 135, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 19.988164, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.740153198160222, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 143, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -32.5100594531844, "weeks": 8, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "26.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-33.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.2", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-39.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 84, "history_score": 55, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 144, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 128.6809896642928, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 21, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 65.0, "median_return": 6.41, "bar_width": 32.05, "average_return": 5.06, "best_return": 32.59, "worst_return": -12.44 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 81.2, "median_return": 11.05, "bar_width": 55.25, "average_return": 13.32, "best_return": 43.22, "worst_return": -8.35 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 50.24, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 47.88, "best_return": 64.28, "worst_return": 29.73 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.99, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 13.49; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 8, "constructive_percent": 47, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 219, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.38, "average_return": 1.2, "median_excess_return": -0.69, "excess_observations": 219, "p10": -6.72, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 1.0, "average_return": 1.87, "median_excess_return": -1.41, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -11.11, "p90": 20.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 51.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 4.05, "median_excess_return": -7.71, "excess_observations": 54, "p10": -11.2, "p90": 18.33 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 22.62, "expected_move": 7.99977248, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 34, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 26.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", 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