{ "ticker": { "symbol": "ETU", "name": "T-REX 2X LONG ETHER DAILY TARGET ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 4.1101, "latest_open": 4.17, "latest_high": 4.53, "latest_low": 4.0699, "bar_count": 92, "analysis_bar_count": 92, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 24, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 6.409833, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -85.65353595276153, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 29, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 16.419572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 156.16224322848973, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true 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{ "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.812364129824735 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.0435450923743197 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.1377225692442323 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.1341931272783103 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.157974570993162 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.0871667906711735 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.9576264473959717 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.821733980355142 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7031557214160278 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.51; Wave 2 7.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.25; Wave 3 3.02.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.25; Wave 4 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.40\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 17.51, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.75554722579575, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 5.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -70.01713306681897, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 7.87, "confirmation": 3.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.87; Wave 2 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 7.87, "confirmation": 3.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.51; Wave 2 7.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.25; Wave 3 3.02.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.25; Wave 4 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.40\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 17.51, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.75554722579575, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 5.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -70.01713306681897, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 7.87, "confirmation": 3.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.51; Wave 2 7.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.25; Wave 3 3.02.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.25; Wave 4 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.40\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 17.51, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.75554722579575, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 5.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -70.01713306681897, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 7.87, "confirmation": 3.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.51; Wave 2 7.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.25; Wave 3 3.02.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.25; Wave 4 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.40\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 17.51, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.75554722579575, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 5.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -70.01713306681897, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 7.87, "confirmation": 3.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 72, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 17.51, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.75554722579575, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 5.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -70.01713306681897, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -40.526740827485874, "fair_value_gap": -79.06220203525729, "market_activity": -48.550778, "market_dynamics": -0.020874, "relative_strength": -77.070006, "roc30": -70.95335689045936, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 40.5% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 36.09602649006623 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -42.27387640449438 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -70.10836363636365 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -85.92876678261857 } ], "range": { "high_52": 48.908624, "low_52": 2.86, "position_52": 2.714739098393038, "drawdown": -91.59636958913421 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 109.35920446913823, "average_weekly_range": 20.290492880449957, "active_drawdown": -93.06823221639635 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 77, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 49.904761904761905, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 6.910837, "fair_value": 19.630049, "trend_gap": -40.526740827485874, "fair_value_gap": -79.06220203525729 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 87, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.02, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.6264294790343, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 91, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.1101, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 36.09602649006623, "weeks": 4, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "40.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-77.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-48.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-71.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 35, "indicator_coverage": 96, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 92, "confirmed_pivots": 14 }, "volume_ratio": 46.26905771937036, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 44.0, "median_return": -12.36, "bar_width": 61.8, "average_return": -15.29, "best_return": 32.84, "worst_return": -65.28 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 11.1, "median_return": -43.44, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -37.22, "best_return": 12.52, "worst_return": -63.94 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -76.87, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -76.85, "best_return": -74.85, "worst_return": -78.66 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 3.02, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 7.87; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 8, "constructive_percent": 47, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 219, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.38, "average_return": 1.2, "median_excess_return": -0.69, "excess_observations": 219, "p10": -6.72, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 1.0, "average_return": 1.87, "median_excess_return": -1.41, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -11.11, "p90": 20.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 51.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 4.05, "median_excess_return": -7.71, "excess_observations": 54, "p10": -11.2, "p90": 18.33 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 21.12, "expected_move": 16.26303597, "invalidation_distance": 91.479526045595, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 6, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 40.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-05", 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