{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "ESWP",
    "name": "iShares MSCI EM Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "AMS"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 5.409,
  "latest_open": 5.275,
  "latest_high": 5.421,
  "latest_low": 5.275,
  "bar_count": 24,
  "analysis_bar_count": 24,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 0,
      "date": "2026-02-27",
      "price": 5.1412,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "price": 4.604,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -10.448922430560964,
      "weeks": 5,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 16,
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "price": 5.74,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
      "weeks": 11,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 20,
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "price": 5.315,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
      "weeks": 4,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 23,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 5.409,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": false
    }
  ],
  "cycle": {
    "phase": "rising",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": 1.7042019067281384,
    "slope": 0.16872130790565176,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 16,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 3,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 5,
    "series": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 1.5354805988224867
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 2.1168983339886336
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 2.569075536691402
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 2.683339486415264
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 1.7042019067281384
      }
    ]
  },
  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "falling",
    "alignment_score": 25,
    "risk_score": 75,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 19,
    "nearest_crest_window": null,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 10,
        "period_range": [
          8,
          12
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "falling",
        "value": -0.4537908521755968,
        "slope": -0.43427795579348333,
        "amplitude": 4.141,
        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
        "weeks_since_crest": 7,
        "projected_trough_window": 9,
        "projected_crest_window": 3,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 7,
          "midpoint": 9,
          "end": 11
        },
        "crest_window": {
          "start": 1,
          "midpoint": 3,
          "end": 5
        },
        "fld": {
          "value": 5.635,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 5.01225,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -0.03275000000000006,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          14,
          22
        ],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": 1.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": 1.0819981154402962
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": 1.0273327051467653
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": 0.9136761628035966
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": 0.7798823192603201
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": 0.5876637263680866
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": 0.729586823042402
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": 0.9237231938425268
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": 0.7656822545370373
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": 0.7200447067236637
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": 0.47469809146503694
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -0.019512896382113454
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -0.32814195047540423
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -0.5608595045971269
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": -0.4537908521755968
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 20,
        "label": "20w",
        "estimated_period": 20,
        "period_range": [
          15,
          25
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "cresting",
        "value": 0.629300618446965,
        "slope": -0.2480973902643573,
        "amplitude": 3.021,
        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": 19,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 14,
          "midpoint": 19,
          "end": 24
        },
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 5.307,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          22
        ],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": 1.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": 0.8773980087113223
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": 0.7682017670144614
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": 0.5756891119339234
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": 0.629300618446965
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 40,
        "label": "40w",
        "estimated_period": 40,
        "period_range": [
          30,
          50
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 4.7212499999999995,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 80,
        "label": "80w",
        "estimated_period": 80,
        "period_range": [
          61,
          99
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": null,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "composite": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 1.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 1.0819981154402962
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 1.0273327051467653
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.9136761628035966
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.7798823192603201
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.5876637263680866
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.729586823042402
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.9237231938425268
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.7656822545370373
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.7200447067236637
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.7898792365860148
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.518633646673948
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.3296642800185151
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.12106966532150323
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.1960640301979403
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 5.74; Wave 2 5.41.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 16,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 5.74,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
          "weeks": 11,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 20,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 5.315,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 23,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 5.409,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 5.74,
      "confirmation": 5.315,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 33
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 4.60; Wave B 5.32.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 1.14; C length 0.09.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.08\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 5,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 4.604,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.448922430560964,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 16,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 5.74,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
            "weeks": 11,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 20,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 5.315,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 5.409,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 5.409,
        "confirmation": 5.315,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 4.60; Wave 2 5.41.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 5,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 4.604,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.448922430560964,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 16,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 5.74,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
            "weeks": 11,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 5.409,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -5.76655052264809,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 4.604,
        "confirmation": 5.74,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 5.74; Wave 2 5.41.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 16,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 5.74,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 20,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 5.315,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 5.409,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 5.74,
          "confirmation": 5.315,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 4.60; Wave 2 5.41.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 5,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 4.604,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.448922430560964,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 16,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 5.74,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 5.409,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.76655052264809,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 4.604,
          "confirmation": 5.74,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -1.7260174418604608
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 0.8201304753028815
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 5.74,
      "low_52": 4.604,
      "position_52": 70.86267605633799,
      "drawdown": -5.76655052264809
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.61553869574493,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.4910331020363914,
      "active_drawdown": -5.76655052264809
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 20,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 5.315,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 16,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 5.74,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 20,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 5.315,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 5.209342,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": 3.8326913456632226
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 20,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 5.315,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 23,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 5.409,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "+0.0",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 2,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 33,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 34,
      "history_score": 9,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 24,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
    },
    "volume_ratio": 32.7383917538249,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 5.32, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5.74; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 41,
      "rising_cycle_count": 9,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 53,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^AEX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 6.119430578665194,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 21,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 71% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-07"
    ],
    "close": [
      5.1412,
      4.7875,
      4.6665,
      4.604,
      4.604,
      4.604,
      4.964,
      5.236,
      5.211,
      5.211,
      5.365,
      5.365,
      5.307,
      5.307,
      5.307,
      5.589,
      5.74,
      5.562,
      5.635,
      5.504,
      5.315,
      5.315,
      5.275,
      5.409
    ],
    "trend": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
    "sma30": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
    "roc30": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
    "drawdown": [
      0.0,
      -6.879716797634807,
      -9.233252937057502,
      -10.448922430560964,
      -10.448922430560964,
      -10.448922430560964,
      -3.4466661479810163,
      0.0,
      -0.47746371275782024,
      -0.47746371275782024,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      -1.0810810810810778,
      -1.0810810810810778,
      -1.0810810810810778,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      -3.1010452961672463,
      -1.8292682926829342,
      -4.111498257839733,
      -7.404181184668987,
      -7.404181184668987,
      -8.101045296167245,
      -5.76655052264809
    ],
    "volatility": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      30.84460764139447,
      29.086513893533077,
      28.21645568559386,
      26.92353583907806,
      25.959023179748808,
      24.948637786848863,
      24.047727088003327,
      24.933049117377735,
      24.41390804162901,
      24.568763840372736,
      23.91227742194412,
      23.735185081547204,
      23.91123637180333,
      23.337442154834406,
      22.846707840979164,
      22.61553869574493
    ],
    "volumeRatio": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      46.405386031879516,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      123.56006870239015,
      0.06336650970709377,
      null,
      250.2695963735422,
      32.7383917538249
    ],
    "fairValue": [
      5.1412,
      4.96435,
      4.865067,
      4.7998,
      4.76064,
      4.734533,
      4.767314,
      4.8259,
      4.868689,
      4.90292,
      4.944927,
      4.979933,
      5.005092,
      5.026657,
      5.045347,
      5.079325,
      5.118188,
      5.142844,
      5.168747,
      5.18551,
      5.191676,
      5.197282,
      5.200661,
      5.209342
    ],
    "marketActivity": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
    "marketDynamics": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "relativeStrength": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
    "cycle": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 1.5354805988224867
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 2.1168983339886336
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 2.569075536691402
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 2.683339486415264
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 1.7042019067281384
      }
    ],
    "hurstComposite": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 1.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 1.0819981154402962
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 1.0273327051467653
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.9136761628035966
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.7798823192603201
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.5876637263680866
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.729586823042402
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.9237231938425268
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.7656822545370373
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.7200447067236637
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.7898792365860148
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.518633646673948
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.3296642800185151
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.12106966532150323
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.1960640301979403
      }
    ],
    "hurstCycles": {
      "10": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-06",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "value": 1.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": 1.0819981154402962
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": 1.0273327051467653
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": 0.9136761628035966
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "value": 0.7798823192603201
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "value": 0.5876637263680866
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "value": 0.729586823042402
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "value": 0.9237231938425268
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "value": 0.7656822545370373
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "value": 0.7200447067236637
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "value": 0.47469809146503694
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "value": -0.019512896382113454
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "value": -0.32814195047540423
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "value": -0.5608595045971269
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "value": -0.4537908521755968
        }
      ],
      "20": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-06",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "value": 1.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "value": 0.8773980087113223
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "value": 0.7682017670144614
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "value": 0.5756891119339234
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "value": 0.629300618446965
        }
      ],
      "40": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-06",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "value": null
        }
      ],
      "80": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-06",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "value": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "pivots": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "price": 5.1412,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      {
        "index": 5,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 4.604,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.448922430560964,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      {
        "index": 16,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 5.74,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 24.674196350999132,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      {
        "index": 20,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 5.315,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.404181184668987,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      {
        "index": 23,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 5.409,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 1.7685794920037519,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      }
    ],
    "labels": []
  }
}