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"value": 1.994392524222876 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.791856647849822 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.7225826656715162 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.6238404496414425 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.7172860179557468 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.5116708640169283 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.2551338626459823 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.8380563110255775 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.6650350670755226 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.6665992497976161 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.7561782857526718 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.9210683053580879 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.9278702692309202 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9190829934724938 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.9826139832133427 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.8837009472615184 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.7757511725835802 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7297360773674542 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.518601302973596 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.41999429968347274 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.36392697473251573 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.19882446691303465 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.07886241712873326 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.09426508488773983 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.288475815883657 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.3471176225352282 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave B 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 13.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.896988906497631, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 43.505001, "confirmation": 57.490002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave 2 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 44.80; Wave 3 43.51.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 96% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.896988906497631, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 57.490002, "confirmation": 43.505001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave B 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 13.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 174.4912576664107, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 43.505001, "confirmation": 57.490002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 12.725737918095748, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave B 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 13.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 174.4912576664107, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 43.505001, "confirmation": 57.490002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.953586198809842, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave B 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 13.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.896988906497631, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 43.505001, "confirmation": 57.490002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.567510339166889, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.00; Wave B 57.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 13.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.896988906497631, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 43.505001, "confirmation": 57.490002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 44, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 58.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.896988906497631, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.758622413793102, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -14.736200611476955, "fair_value_gap": 29.216333621388273, "market_activity": -13.979286, "market_dynamics": -1.185583, "relative_strength": -6.688685, "roc30": -2.5098016806722687, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 14.7% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -9.032932377774545 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -20.49524816346404 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -21.80984582692031 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 47.17524516831005 } ], "range": { "high_52": 59.990002, "low_52": 28.344999, "position_52": 47.90646409482092, "drawdown": -27.479580680794108 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 40.100441932997185, "average_weekly_range": 5.986922135075236, "active_drawdown": -24.991377586206898 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 21.129999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.384120745542942, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 21.129999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.384120745542942, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 51.024, "fair_value": 33.668345, "trend_gap": -14.736200611476955, "fair_value_gap": 29.216333621388273 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 57.490002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.32590018584598, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 43.505001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -24.325970627031808, "weeks": 11, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "14.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-6.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-14.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 116, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 56.38625787927791, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 57.49, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 43.51; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 199, "positive_rate": 67.3, "median_return": 1.64, "average_return": 1.95, "median_excess_return": -0.62, "excess_observations": 199, "p10": -3.88, "p90": 8.05 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 72.7, "median_return": 2.98, "average_return": 4.32, "median_excess_return": -2.07, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -3.02, "p90": 13.32 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 53, "positive_rate": 73.6, "median_return": 3.97, "average_return": 7.37, "median_excess_return": -1.64, "excess_observations": 53, "p10": -6.05, "p90": 22.81 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": "2026-08-04", "earnings_weeks": 2, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "volatility", "options_conviction": 47.25, "expected_move": 18.95910781, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": true, "flags": [ "Earnings are due in about 2 weeks.", "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 41, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 14.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 48% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Earnings are about 2 week(s) away." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "Earnings are about 2 week(s) away." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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