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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.43117168428166197 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.4142037307917567 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.43229077465978605 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.4621273496643791 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.5720930875007688 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.70; Wave 2 23.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.50; Wave 3 13.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 21.50; Wave 4 17.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.20, 9.95, 1.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 13.95; Wave 5 16.10.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 235, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 24.700001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.762341289791092, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 21.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.955469111114612, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 246, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 23.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.162790697674412, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 17.450001, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 13.95; Wave 2 16.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 13.95, "confirmation": 17.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.90; Wave B 17.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 9.95; C length 1.35.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.14\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 246, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 23.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.162790697674412, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 16.1, "confirmation": 17.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.50246018391773, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 29.07; Wave 2 27.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 24.86; Wave 3 13.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 24.86; Wave 4 16.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.21, 13.78, 0.40.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 13.95; Wave 5 16.10.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.27\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 209, "date": "2025-05-02", "price": 29.069859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.96212183378565, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 216, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 24.855448, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.497528178585254, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 218, "date": "2025-07-04", "price": 27.72891, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.560692850919445, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -49.691495266131994, "weeks": 44, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 264, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 16.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.279569892473123, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.4242424242424154, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 16.5, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.189037614948581, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.70; Wave 2 23.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.50; Wave 3 13.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 21.50; Wave 4 17.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.20, 9.95, 1.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 13.95; Wave 5 16.10.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 235, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 24.700001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.762341289791092, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 21.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.955469111114612, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 246, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 23.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.162790697674412, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 17.450001, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.032326330464007, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.55; Wave 2 16.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 15.55, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.757575757575753, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.218655948553053, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.55, "confirmation": 17.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 73, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 235, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 24.700001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.762341289791092, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 245, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 21.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.955469111114612, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 246, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 23.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.162790697674412, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -10.967740294336219, "fair_value_gap": -54.66259707625002, "market_activity": -60.835226, "market_dynamics": 0.551025, "relative_strength": -46.282085, "roc30": -25.116279069767437, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 11.0% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -5.014754866386137 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 15.412186379928333 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -27.80268734541198 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -39.58724202626641 } ], "range": { "high_52": 27.299999, "low_52": 12.6, "position_52": 23.809525429219427, "drawdown": -41.02563886540801 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 37.869963411835194, "average_weekly_range": 8.778065932466014, "active_drawdown": -74.00862058179847 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 13.95, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.63179916317991, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 18.083333, "fair_value": 35.511518, "trend_gap": -10.967740294336219, "fair_value_gap": -54.66259707625002 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 17.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.089612903225813, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -7.736394972126356, "weeks": 5, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "11.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-46.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-60.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-25.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 27 }, "volume_ratio": 30.710981353296944, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 77, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 76, "positive_rate": 34.2, "median_return": -3.11, "bar_width": 15.549999999999999, "average_return": -3.56, "best_return": 9.0, "worst_return": -32.13 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 28.2, "median_return": -11.48, "bar_width": 57.400000000000006, "average_return": -10.29, "best_return": 20.56, "worst_return": -37.44 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 68, "positive_rate": 25.0, "median_return": -16.16, "bar_width": 80.8, "average_return": -13.3, "best_return": 24.1, "worst_return": -37.16 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 17.45; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 150, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 1.02, "average_return": 2.96, "median_excess_return": -1.13, "excess_observations": 150, "p10": -7.63, "p90": 16.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 94, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 3.27, "average_return": 10.52, "median_excess_return": -2.28, "excess_observations": 94, "p10": -10.11, "p90": 42.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 70, "positive_rate": 61.4, "median_return": 4.53, "average_return": 15.59, "median_excess_return": -1.48, "excess_observations": 70, "p10": -15.14, "p90": 64.34 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.38509937888198, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 11.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 24% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-11", "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", 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