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"Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.40072704837118, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1351.35; Wave 2 13.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.40072704837118, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1351.349365, "confirmation": 11.1315, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 71, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.30245771241194, "fair_value_gap": -98.27897082948914, "market_activity": 14.01843, "market_dynamics": 1.502225, "relative_strength": -96.976112, "roc30": 12.96451639963091, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 9.3% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.614789662327866 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.178956584026418 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 15.537728969156191 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -98.75856188061766 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1351.349365, "low_52": 11.089, "position_52": 0.17739090568421004, "drawdown": -99.00347753521164 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 11.959846666354178, "average_weekly_range": 1.5705659899563922, "active_drawdown": -99.00347753521164 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 234, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 1351.349365, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.39527439217412, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 12.3204, "fair_value": 782.467853, "trend_gap": 9.30245771241194, "fair_value_gap": -98.27897082948914 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.1315, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.17626778919603, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.4665, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.976508107622504, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-97.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+13.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 140.6180146208829, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 26, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 0.17, "bar_width": 0.8500000000000001, "average_return": 0.31, "best_return": 20.02, "worst_return": -11.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 47.8, "median_return": -0.35, "bar_width": 1.75, "average_return": -13.04, "best_return": 11.0, "worst_return": -98.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 65.2, "median_return": 7.34, "bar_width": 36.7, "average_return": -7.93, "best_return": 17.1, "worst_return": -99.01 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 11.13, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1351.35; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 9934.89670664241, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 26, "explanation": "Price is 9.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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