{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "APLZ",
    "name": "Tradr 2X Short APLD Daily ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-07-24",
  "latest_close": 30.69,
  "latest_open": 32.2,
  "latest_high": 32.39,
  "latest_low": 23.325,
  "bar_count": 27,
  "analysis_bar_count": 27,
  "reversal_percent": 16.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 1,
      "date": "2026-01-30",
      "price": 115.1,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 3,
      "date": "2026-02-13",
      "price": 69.85,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -39.313640312771504,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 6,
      "date": "2026-03-06",
      "price": 119.6,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 71.22405153901218,
      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 7,
      "date": "2026-03-13",
      "price": 98.65,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -17.516722408026748,
      "weeks": 1,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 9,
      "date": "2026-03-27",
      "price": 118.65,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 20.27369488089204,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 18,
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "price": 13.6,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -88.5377159713443,
      "weeks": 9,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 19,
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "price": 18.63,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 36.98529411764706,
      "weeks": 1,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 21,
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "price": 12.65,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 26,
      "date": "2026-07-24",
      "price": 30.69,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 142.6086956521739,
      "weeks": 5,
      "confirmed": false
    }
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  "cycle": {
    "phase": "troughing",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -41.23172329130455,
    "slope": 33.856376426985264,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 10,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 5,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
    "series": [
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": -18.43912437138148
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": -37.62705181264005
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": -57.47085785822651
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -75.08809971828981
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -71.10989258104695
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -64.5242037885944
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -51.143724427929584
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -41.23172329130455
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "rising",
    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 15,
    "nearest_crest_window": null,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 10,
        "period_range": [
          8,
          12
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "rising",
        "value": 0.9736048979693439,
        "slope": 1.2206254813529402,
        "amplitude": 51.352,
        "weeks_since_trough": 13,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": 7,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 5,
          "midpoint": 7,
          "end": 9
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        "fld": {
          "value": 12.594999999999999,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
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            "value": 0.5288257921553023
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            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": -0.4903914026148992
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            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": -1.837458377071579
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            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": -2.612486125690526
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": -2.210355622641553
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            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": -1.9541864021986117
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            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": -1.6981945905193816
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            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": -1.5291520246043342
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            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": -1.4680159891546163
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            "value": -1.2704820582760918
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            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": -1.111290950599593
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            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": -1.0370969835331976
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            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": -0.7525113172567954
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            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": -0.24702058338359634
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            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": 0.2540851372589985
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": 0.8965494709140932
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": 0.9736048979693439
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        ]
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      {
        "period": 20,
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        "estimated_period": 20,
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          15,
          25
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "amplitude": 69.812,
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        "projected_trough_window": 15,
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 1,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
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            "date": "2026-07-10",
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            "date": "2026-07-24",
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      {
        "period": 40,
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        "estimated_period": 40,
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          30,
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 108.025,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
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          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
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          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
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            "date": "2026-03-13",
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            "date": "2026-04-17",
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            "date": "2026-06-26",
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            "date": "2026-07-03",
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            "date": "2026-07-10",
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            "date": "2026-07-17",
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
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        ]
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      {
        "period": 80,
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        "estimated_period": 80,
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          61,
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 12.65; Wave 2 30.69.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 21,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 12.65,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 25,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 36.19,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 186.08695652173913,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 26,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "price": 30.69,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -15.197568389057743,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 12.65,
      "confirmation": 36.19,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 100
    },
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 12.65; Wave 2 30.69.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 21,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 12.65,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 25,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 36.19,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 186.08695652173913,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 30.69,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.197568389057743,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 12.65,
          "confirmation": 36.19,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 100
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 77.77906505242426
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -21.307692307692303
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -71.07445805843544
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 156.75,
      "low_52": 11.27,
      "position_52": 13.348913940060491,
      "drawdown": -80.42105263157895
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 177.57780268726572,
      "average_weekly_range": 44.9824810415397,
      "active_drawdown": -74.33946488294315
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 21,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 12.65,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 9,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 118.65,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.27369488089204,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 21,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 12.65,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 58.581963,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": -47.611861350566215
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 21,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 12.65,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -32.09876543209876,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 30.69,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 142.6086956521739,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 142.6086956521739,
      "weeks": 5,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "+0.0",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 2,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 33,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 41,
      "history_score": 10,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 27,
      "confirmed_pivots": 8
    },
    "volume_ratio": 21.265780723913284,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "triggered",
      "label": "Triggered",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 36.19, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 12.65; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 8,
      "constructive_percent": 47,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 41,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 60.44,
      "expected_move": 4.41166575,
      "invalidation_distance": 58.781362007168454,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 60/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 13% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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    "hurstComposite": [
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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