{ "ticker": { "symbol": "XMLF", "name": "Reksa Dana Mandiri Indeks ETF LQ45", "exchange": "JKT" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 732.0, "latest_open": 705.0, "latest_high": 905.0, "latest_low": 705.0, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 5.833751648739689, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-02-21", "price": 824.372009, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 44, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 747.903687, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.275948378300658, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true 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0.6425018358003816 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.5434575639958059 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.5241999001877585 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.5277341048992181 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.13235515638777448 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.41947373159005263 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.7624358986111209 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.9112236926851673 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.0952738572575784 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.9871714025946601 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.8273435059209295 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.0739247591093313 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.3598941131093087 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.4126239616918037 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.5995873915179597 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.890475332458938 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -2.0653402094123683 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -2.327238021938488 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -2.5029267036556253 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -2.479771994226624 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -2.5496466909115902 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -2.6070513973060736 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -2.4794896200297933 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -2.235754711753297 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.8723057831820387 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.764566209870537 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.5300546789744058 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 982.00; Wave 2 732.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 982.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.80188679245283, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.68839103869654, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.741301059001513, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 982.0, "confirmation": 661.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 72, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 661.00; Wave B 662.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 39.00; C length 70.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.79\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.775147928994084, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 700.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.900151285930408, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 662.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.428571428571429, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.574018126888218, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 732.0, "confirmation": 662.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 48 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 661.00; Wave 2 662.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 700.00; Wave 3 732.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.79\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.775147928994084, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 700.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.900151285930408, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 662.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.428571428571429, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.574018126888218, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 662.0, "confirmation": 732.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 37 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.334002637983502, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.833751648739689, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 982.00; Wave 2 732.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 982.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.80188679245283, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.68839103869654, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.741301059001513, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 982.0, "confirmation": 661.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.083626154117782, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 72, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 661.00; Wave B 662.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 39.00; C length 70.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.79\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.775147928994084, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 700.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.900151285930408, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 662.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.428571428571429, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.574018126888218, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 732.0, "confirmation": 662.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 48 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 982.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.80188679245283, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.68839103869654, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.741301059001513, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -7.419898858591944, "fair_value_gap": -16.281528339257353, "market_activity": -92.457399, "market_dynamics": 0.064555, "relative_strength": 2.36103, "roc30": -23.430962343096233, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 7.4% below its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 7.80559646539028 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -6.3938618925831205 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -18.485523385300667 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -16.438356164383563 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1030.0, "low_52": 653.0, "position_52": 20.954907161803714, "drawdown": -28.932038834951456 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 27.050381011065188, "average_weekly_range": 4.335743652651249, "active_drawdown": -28.35047922189787 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.68839103869654, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 982.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.80188679245283, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 982.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.80188679245283, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 790.666667, "fair_value": 874.35901, "trend_gap": -7.419898858591944, "fair_value_gap": -16.281528339257353 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 661.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.68839103869654, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 732.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.741301059001513, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 10.741301059001513, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "7.4% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.4", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-92.5", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 48.8786658999425, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 2, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 6.5, "bar_width": 32.5, "average_return": 6.5, "best_return": 6.5, "worst_return": 6.5 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 661.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 982.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 20, "rising_cycle_percent": 83, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 435, "positive_rate": 50.6, "median_return": 0.24, "average_return": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.34, "excess_observations": 435, "p10": -7.71, "p90": 8.65 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 157, "positive_rate": 51.6, "median_return": 0.21, "average_return": -0.58, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 157, "p10": -11.94, "p90": 8.73 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 0.78, "average_return": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -1.38, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.36, "p90": 10.47 } ], "benchmark": "^JKSE", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 34.15300546448088, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 21% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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