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0.05982436496737746 }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "value": 1.1623040864624716 }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "value": 1.889906172459386 }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "value": 2.0646612068265497 }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "value": 1.9645693666461979 }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "value": 2.2104767673834758 }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "value": 2.644805451840673 }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "value": 2.823995069235855 }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "value": 2.8450765417061117 }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "value": 2.943397247448042 }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "value": 2.980641414497249 }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "value": 2.5901813445187574 }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "value": 2.3768507064473754 }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": 2.06055857206349 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": 1.807538279380707 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": 1.7427385165744373 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 1.738334144717159 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 2.1248326874396826 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 2.2991415329272114 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"date": "2025-06-20", "value": 1.04252212721171 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 1.2124303954167142 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 1.2795540161010281 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 1.0153678401142778 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.7736376084980258 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 0.560689220704198 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 0.3781397304727647 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": -0.16840699335908194 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": -0.4634597670950984 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": -0.5048594214459932 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": -0.3552145872743194 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": -0.3858939321814421 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": -0.42135478179858166 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": -0.1659439745366502 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.05620307752966075 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.2688941502660908 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.5201206483760288 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.36792008471952564 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.5106814766678 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.2291191545352272 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -0.13400069022046365 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.5461606907719768 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -1.108069992108878 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -1.4963422970768434 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -1.538287700601206 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -1.4899456080585693 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -1.5743191596729602 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -1.6953065208780982 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.7847328949347783 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -1.777083616126361 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -1.8085468222827898 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -1.9602879851384365 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -2.185107609349752 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -2.286199270735025 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -2.3467313512149124 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -2.3933391837201046 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -2.435876874056003 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.400011025292677 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.330212261008032 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -2.2645653178813174 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -2.2023965729879666 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -2.1821974016125 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -2.295463696026735 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -2.122270328290508 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.8992867221201557 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.839955111414277 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.15671952815836 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.6029914919024195 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.0055463748122123735 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.43649761050988645 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8707453698547944 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1577552849178478 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3131003468853746 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.377147767868211 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.6922183513004645 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.858986556727587 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.9590512562912534 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.8440046518706228 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.6506579743292975 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.7944566336184309 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 13.78; Wave 2 13.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 13.78, "confirmation": 12.53, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.42; Wave B 12.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.36; C length 1.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.22\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 134, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 8.42, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.364908503767484, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.71, "confirmation": 12.53, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.42; Wave 2 11.32.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.95; Wave 3 13.78.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 11.95; Wave 4 12.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.53, 2.46, 1.18.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 13.78; Wave 5 13.71.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 18% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.70\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 134, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 8.42, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.364908503767484, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 11.946355, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.880700712589075, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.31658, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.271691658250575, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.768237400345328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 12.53, "confirmation": 13.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.15831102844118, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.348944392775737, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 13.78; Wave 2 13.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 13.78, "confirmation": 12.53, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.444261074943015, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.42; Wave 2 11.32.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.95; Wave 3 13.78.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 11.95; Wave 4 12.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.53, 2.46, 1.18.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 13.78; Wave 5 13.71.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 18% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.70\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 134, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 8.42, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.364908503767484, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 11.946355, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.880700712589075, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.31658, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.271691658250575, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.768237400345328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 12.53, "confirmation": 13.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 30.501355557844292, "fair_value_gap": 20.797613158992394, "market_activity": 82.196355, "market_dynamics": 1.237716, "relative_strength": 15.952751, "roc30": 23.84823848238483, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 30.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.5079825834542707 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 39.686889442972316 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 49.34640522875819 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 12.311512650937543 } ], "range": { "high_52": 14.26, "low_52": 7.96, "position_52": 91.2698412698413, "drawdown": -3.8569424964936814 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 41.60872058776687, "average_weekly_range": 4.42452826360207, "active_drawdown": -1.780488346552243 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 13.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.657957244655584, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 10.505638, "fair_value": 11.349562, "trend_gap": 30.501355557844292, "fair_value_gap": 20.797613158992394 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.53, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.0711175616836, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 151, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.4173982442139, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "30.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+82.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+23.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 58, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 152, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 66.19295616957277, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 46.9, "median_return": -1.08, "bar_width": 5.4, "average_return": -0.19, "best_return": 9.96, "worst_return": -11.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -2.16, "bar_width": 10.8, "average_return": -0.18, "best_return": 14.84, "worst_return": -6.67 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 46.7, "median_return": -1.85, "bar_width": 9.25, "average_return": -3.93, "best_return": 9.08, "worst_return": -19.5 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 12.53, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 13.78; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 38, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 441, "positive_rate": 63.9, "median_return": 0.34, "average_return": 0.57, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 441, "p10": -4.66, "p90": 5.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 149, "positive_rate": 70.5, "median_return": 1.11, "average_return": 2.48, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 149, "p10": -6.07, "p90": 11.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 78, "positive_rate": 78.2, "median_return": 2.99, "average_return": 5.68, "median_excess_return": 1.91, "excess_observations": 78, "p10": -8.65, "p90": 19.74 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.5105762217359482, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 59, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 20, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 30.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 10, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 65, "explanation": "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 30.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.", "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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