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"hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "rising", "alignment_score": 62, "risk_score": 38, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 8, "nearest_crest_window": 9, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 11, "period_range": [ 9, 13 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "neutral", "value": -1.0, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": 0.0, "weeks_since_trough": 4, "weeks_since_crest": 3, "projected_trough_window": 7, "projected_crest_window": 8, "trough_window": { "start": 5, "midpoint": 7, "end": 9 }, "crest_window": { "start": 6, "midpoint": 8, "end": 10 }, "fld": { "value": 49.099998, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 143, "displacement": 6, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 49.099998, "state": "price above", "slope": 0.0, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone 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-0.12938305379848308 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.11355361698369869 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.09253039075560503 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.06706247116277372 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.039262223781237 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.011970378078266598 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.012324375633530489 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.03222598953765921 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.04748820024153029 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.05863769656511807 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.06653894307394098 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.07209494874609398 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.0761055176990552 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.07923506816714669 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.08203895079538824 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 39.15; Wave 2 40.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 42.96; Wave 3 48.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 42.96; Wave 4 43.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.81, 7.85, 5.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 48.04; Wave 5 49.10.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2022-12-30", "price": 39.145, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.250750658585775, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2023-02-03", "price": 42.955002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.733048920679517, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2023-03-10", "price": 40.195, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.425333189368726, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2023-09-01", "price": 48.044998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.529787286975992, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 43.75, "confirmation": 49.099998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 76 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.20; Wave 2 43.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 48.04; Wave 3 49.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.68\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2023-03-10", "price": 40.195, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.425333189368726, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2023-09-01", "price": 48.044998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.529787286975992, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 43.75, "confirmation": 49.099998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 72, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.20; Wave B 43.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.85; C length 5.35.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.68\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2023-03-10", "price": 40.195, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.425333189368726, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2023-09-01", "price": 48.044998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.529787286975992, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 49.099998, "confirmation": 43.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 11 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 39.15; Wave 2 40.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 42.96; Wave 3 48.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 42.96; Wave 4 43.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.81, 7.85, 5.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 48.04; Wave 5 49.10.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2022-12-30", "price": 39.145, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.250750658585775, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2023-02-03", "price": 42.955002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.733048920679517, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2023-03-10", "price": 40.195, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.425333189368726, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2023-09-01", "price": 48.044998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.529787286975992, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 43.75, "confirmation": 49.099998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 76 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 78, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2022-12-30", "price": 39.145, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.250750658585775, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2023-02-03", "price": 42.955002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.733048920679517, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2023-03-10", "price": 40.195, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.425333189368726, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2023-09-01", "price": 48.044998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.529787286975992, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": 0.5162543695144263, "market_activity": 0.0, "market_dynamics": -0.453384, "relative_strength": -9.954993, "roc30": 0.0, "hurst_alignment": 62, "hurst_risk": 38 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 0.0% above its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 0.0 } ], "range": { "high_52": 49.099998, "low_52": 49.099998, "position_52": null, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 0.0, "average_weekly_range": 0.0, "active_drawdown": -3.155824395348633 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 49.099998, "fair_value": 48.847819, "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": 0.5162543695144263 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 130, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 43.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.939532061173152, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 49.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 12.228566857142855, "weeks": 145, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 3, "neutral": 3, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 36.20692700330278, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 107, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 106, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 97, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 84, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 43.75; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 10.896126716746505, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Range position is unavailable." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 38, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 38/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", 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