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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -0.10222973269087476
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        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "date": "2026-08-14",
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        "date": "2026-08-21",
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        "date": "2026-08-28",
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        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": 0.06194653100639519
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        "date": "2026-09-11",
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": -0.055656513208186875
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      {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
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      {
        "date": "2026-10-09",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave3",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave3",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 74,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 71.80; Wave 2 67.40.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 51.50; Wave 3 43.85.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.16\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 238,
          "date": "2026-01-16",
          "price": 71.800003,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 242,
          "date": "2026-02-13",
          "price": 51.5,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 250,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 67.400002,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 43.849998,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
          "weeks": 25,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "3"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 67.400002,
      "confirmation": 43.849998,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 18
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 69,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 71.80; Wave B 67.40.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 20.30; C length 23.55.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 1.16\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 238,
            "date": "2026-01-16",
            "price": 71.800003,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 242,
            "date": "2026-02-13",
            "price": 51.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 250,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 67.400002,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 43.849998,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
            "weeks": 25,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 43.849998,
        "confirmation": 67.400002,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 12
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 90,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 71.80; Wave 2 67.40.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 51.50; Wave 3 38.50.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 51.50; Wave 4 43.85.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.42\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 238,
            "date": "2026-01-16",
            "price": 71.800003,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 242,
            "date": "2026-02-13",
            "price": 51.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 250,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 67.400002,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 38.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -42.8783399739365,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 43.849998,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.8960987012987,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 51.5,
        "confirmation": 38.5,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 70
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 22.824995496838596,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 22.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 14.265622185524121,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave3",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 71.80; Wave 2 67.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 51.50; Wave 3 43.85.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.16\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 238,
              "date": "2026-01-16",
              "price": 71.800003,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 242,
              "date": "2026-02-13",
              "price": 51.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 67.400002,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 43.849998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 67.400002,
          "confirmation": 43.849998,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 18
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 14.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 9.985935529866884,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 71.80; Wave 2 67.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 51.50; Wave 3 38.50.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 51.50; Wave 4 43.85.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.42\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 238,
              "date": "2026-01-16",
              "price": 71.800003,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 242,
              "date": "2026-02-13",
              "price": 51.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 67.400002,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 38.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -42.8783399739365,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 43.849998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.8960987012987,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 51.5,
          "confirmation": 38.5,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 70
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 10.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave3_continuation",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 61,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 238,
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "price": 71.800003,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 229.35782703476275,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 242,
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "price": 51.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -28.27298349834331,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 67.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 43.849998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "3"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -11.22091733274096,
      "fair_value_gap": 45.54193579479441,
      "market_activity": -32.076661,
      "market_dynamics": 0.078977,
      "relative_strength": -32.564972,
      "roc30": -18.9463962641921,
      "hurst_alignment": 56,
      "hurst_risk": 46
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 11.2% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 13.601036974146993
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -5.086586469987308
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -32.015506976744184
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 80.0821273100616
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 76.599998,
      "low_52": 21.15,
      "position_52": 40.93777965510477,
      "drawdown": -42.754570306907844
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 35.92781917617543,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.709098167807349,
      "active_drawdown": -38.92758193895898
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 225,
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "price": 21.799999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.67710429264596,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 67.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 67.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 49.392263,
      "fair_value": 30.128772,
      "trend_gap": -11.22091733274096,
      "fair_value_gap": 45.54193579479441
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 67.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 30.873790291262136,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 43.849998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -34.94065771689443,
      "weeks": 25,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "11.2% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-32.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-32.1",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-18.9",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 2,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 7
    },
    "volume_ratio": 139.64491779280078,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 44,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 43,
          "positive_rate": 58.1,
          "median_return": 1.01,
          "bar_width": 5.05,
          "average_return": 0.76,
          "best_return": 24.86,
          "worst_return": -15.67
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 41,
          "positive_rate": 68.3,
          "median_return": 7.22,
          "bar_width": 36.1,
          "average_return": 6.81,
          "best_return": 41.55,
          "worst_return": -9.31
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 41,
          "positive_rate": 87.8,
          "median_return": 26.51,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 45.58,
          "best_return": 220.8,
          "worst_return": -6.22
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 43.85, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 67.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 29,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 478,
          "positive_rate": 53.1,
          "median_return": 0.39,
          "average_return": 0.85,
          "median_excess_return": -1.39,
          "excess_observations": 478,
          "p10": -7.49,
          "p90": 8.41
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 188,
          "positive_rate": 55.3,
          "median_return": 1.43,
          "average_return": 3.16,
          "median_excess_return": -4.41,
          "excess_observations": 188,
          "p10": -10.6,
          "p90": 16.3
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 112,
          "positive_rate": 57.1,
          "median_return": 2.77,
          "average_return": 5.73,
          "median_excess_return": -7.68,
          "excess_observations": 112,
          "p10": -15.82,
          "p90": 30.3
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^TWII",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 53.7058268508929,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 7,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 11.2% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 41% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 7,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 46,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 46/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2025-09-26",
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      "2025-10-24",
      "2025-10-31",
      "2025-11-07",
      "2025-11-14",
      "2025-11-21",
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