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0.8012986750137179 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.6354102946054927 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.416184770868841 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.19390105537112673 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.17964461203017185 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.4292304645541145 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.7493564508824473 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.9720115171437838 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.1499705257857005 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.4270119762493145 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.630473869225447 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.7974805112721735 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.9348472940607195 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.0237251692498988 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.105032678478512 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.264009568858513 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.3283514089829382 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.2757914969577238 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.17803586558562 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.9360975235687503 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.7730500125997164 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 45.97; Wave 2 46.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.34; Wave 3 60.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 50.34; Wave 4 56.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.37, 14.03, 0.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 60.53; Wave 5 57.83.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 88% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.21\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 45.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.979438376018734, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 50.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.50619731333049, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 46.494999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.638063170441007, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 56.889999, "confirmation": 57.830002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 60.53; Wave 2 57.83.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 60.529999, "confirmation": 56.889999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 46.49; Wave B 56.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 14.03; C length 0.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.07\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 142, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 46.494999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.638063170441007, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 57.830002, "confirmation": 56.889999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 37.47; Wave 2 45.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 54.71; Wave 3 57.83.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 37.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.41068543737359, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 54.712799, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.017607525550886, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 45.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.979438376018734, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.79943602785651, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 45.970001, "confirmation": 57.830002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 45.97; Wave 2 46.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.34; Wave 3 60.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 50.34; Wave 4 56.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.37, 14.03, 0.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 60.53; Wave 5 57.83.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 88% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.21\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 45.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.979438376018734, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 50.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.50619731333049, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 46.494999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.638063170441007, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 56.889999, "confirmation": 57.830002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 45.97; Wave 2 46.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.34; Wave 3 60.53.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 50.34; Wave 4 56.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.37, 14.03, 0.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 60.53; Wave 5 57.83.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 88% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.21\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 45.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.979438376018734, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 50.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.50619731333049, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 46.494999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.638063170441007, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 56.889999, "confirmation": 57.830002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 92, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 45.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.979438376018734, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 137, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 50.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.50619731333049, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 46.494999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.638063170441007, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.436704153388657, "fair_value_gap": 35.978754490143885, "market_activity": 46.424281, "market_dynamics": 0.883004, "relative_strength": 11.254723, "roc30": 20.844221084526183, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 9.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.0836200128580518 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 10.194363567073179 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 18.153032996220247 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 29.692760708679067 } ], "range": { "high_52": 61.549999, "low_52": 44.209999, "position_52": 78.54673010380623, "drawdown": -6.043861999087928 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.762565736251746, "average_weekly_range": 2.8725442325580626, "active_drawdown": -4.460593168025653 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 60.529999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.186042159071764, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 52.843333, "fair_value": 42.528704, "trend_gap": 9.436704153388657, "fair_value_gap": 35.978754490143885 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.889999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.013547100835064, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 57.830002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 1.6523167806700036, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+46.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+20.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 160, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 80.99199710629831, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 54, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 53, "positive_rate": 69.8, "median_return": 2.66, "bar_width": 13.3, "average_return": 2.03, "best_return": 18.46, "worst_return": -15.98 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 44, "positive_rate": 68.2, "median_return": 3.9, "bar_width": 19.5, "average_return": 3.51, "best_return": 28.47, "worst_return": -16.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 47.1, "median_return": -0.42, "bar_width": 2.1, "average_return": 5.06, "best_return": 27.31, "worst_return": -9.85 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 56.89; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 1.6254590480560545, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 61, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 27, "explanation": "Price is 9.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 2, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 14, "explanation": "Price is 79% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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