{ "ticker": { "symbol": "MRCP", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 12 ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 34.63, "latest_open": 34.45, "latest_high": 34.64, "latest_low": 34.1807, "bar_count": 127, "analysis_bar_count": 127, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 56, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 27.8402, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 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"guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.53\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.6449, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.769341313703453, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 31.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.5333267983666685, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 34.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.118241617198793, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.63, "confirmation": 31.165, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.16; Wave 2 31.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.64; Wave 3 34.63.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.53\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.6449, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.769341313703453, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 31.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.5333267983666685, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 34.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.118241617198793, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 31.165, "confirmation": 34.63, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.16; Wave B 31.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.48; C length 3.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.53\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.6449, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.769341313703453, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 31.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.5333267983666685, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 34.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.118241617198793, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.63, "confirmation": 31.165, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 63, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 32.6449, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.769341313703453, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 31.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.5333267983666685, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 34.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.118241617198793, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.402395472716606, "fair_value_gap": 17.64270649700616, "market_activity": 54.305349, "market_dynamics": 0.237717, "relative_strength": -1.596212, "roc30": 7.982538197692555, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 4.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.8227697001810972 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.8854266937621165 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.229557333597566 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 15.533076889714795 } ], "range": { "high_52": 34.64, "low_52": 30.158, "position_52": 99.77688531905405, "drawdown": -0.028868360277130516 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 9.478414261137623, "average_weekly_range": 1.0646612144269456, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 33.169737, "fair_value": 29.436589, "trend_gap": 4.402395472716606, "fair_value_gap": 17.64270649700616 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 57, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.1642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.020071694887244, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 34.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.356425956077395, "weeks": 69, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 32.356425956077395, "weeks": 69, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+54.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 69, "history_score": 49, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 127, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 49.04875833805843, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 52, "positive_rate": 82.7, "median_return": 1.07, "bar_width": 5.3500000000000005, "average_return": 0.84, "best_return": 3.31, "worst_return": -4.53 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 93.0, "median_return": 3.47, "bar_width": 17.35, "average_return": 3.55, "best_return": 7.46, "worst_return": -2.84 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 7.1, "bar_width": 35.5, "average_return": 6.69, "best_return": 9.54, "worst_return": 0.21 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 31.16, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 34.63; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 99, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", 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