{ "ticker": { "symbol": "XNJP", "name": "Xtrackers Japan Net Zero Pathway Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 42.615002, "latest_open": 42.055, "latest_high": 42.615002, "latest_low": 41.450001, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 7, "date": "2024-07-26", "price": 33.935001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 8, "date": "2024-08-02", "price": 32.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.377928234037779, "weeks": 1, 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1.153275864557586 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.3874266428476087 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 37.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 40.68; Wave 3 42.62.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.57493440345731, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 37.035, "confirmation": 42.615002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave B 37.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 8.28; C length 5.58.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.67\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.57493440345731, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 42.615002, "confirmation": 37.035, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 35.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 36.96; Wave 3 40.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 36.96; Wave 4 37.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.56, 5.23, 5.58.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 40.68; Wave 5 42.62.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.15\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 55, "date": "2025-06-27", "price": 36.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.09167772804445, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-07-11", "price": 35.445, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.099023379302588, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.769360981802793, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 37.035, "confirmation": 42.615002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 37.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 40.68; Wave 3 42.62.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.57493440345731, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 37.035, "confirmation": 42.615002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 35.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 36.96; Wave 3 40.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 36.96; Wave 4 37.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.56, 5.23, 5.58.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 40.68; Wave 5 42.62.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.15\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 55, "date": "2025-06-27", "price": 36.959999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.09167772804445, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-07-11", "price": 35.445, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.099023379302588, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.769360981802793, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 37.035, "confirmation": 42.615002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 32.395, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.021879796533211, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 40.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.57493440345731, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.2835710455866565, "fair_value_gap": 15.133371123049727, "market_activity": 63.716005, "market_dynamics": 1.201759, "relative_strength": 0.782886, "roc30": 7.437289614589952, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 7.3% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.343645691882174 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.261520261766927 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.311275893003055 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 14.172808729462583 } ], "range": { "high_52": 42.615002, "low_52": 36.715, "position_52": 100.0, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.325531444457555, "average_weekly_range": 1.8273633353036978, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 39.721834, "fair_value": 37.013597, "trend_gap": 7.2835710455866565, "fair_value_gap": 15.133371123049727 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 37.035, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.960176991150451, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 42.615002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.066834075874176, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+63.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 375.39702131161033, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": -0.05, "bar_width": 0.25, "average_return": 0.29, "best_return": 5.76, "worst_return": -8.96 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 0.99, "bar_width": 4.95, "average_return": 1.34, "best_return": 7.8, "worst_return": -2.82 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 77.8, "median_return": 3.75, "bar_width": 18.75, "average_return": 3.1, "best_return": 7.6, "worst_return": -2.39 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 42.62, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 37.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 13.093985071266689, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 45, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 10, "explanation": "Price is 7.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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