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      "confirmation": 213.399994,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 33
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 170.73; Wave B 184.00.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 27.27; C length 29.40.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 1.08\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 170.725998,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 252,
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "price": 198.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.975306818824391,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 261,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 184.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 213.399994,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 213.399994,
        "confirmation": 184.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 170.73; Wave 2 184.00.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 198.00; Wave 3 213.40.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.08\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 170.725998,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 252,
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "price": 198.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.975306818824391,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 261,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 184.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 213.399994,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 184.0,
        "confirmation": 213.399994,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.518617716628569,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 69,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 170.03; Wave 2 170.73.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 202.11; Wave 3 213.40.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 98% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.33\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 233,
              "date": "2025-12-12",
              "price": 170.026291,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -51.65487318490663,
              "weeks": 53,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-20",
              "price": 202.112381,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.871252093595345,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 170.725998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 213.399994,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 24.99560494588527,
              "weeks": 27,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 170.725998,
          "confirmation": 213.399994,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.9491360728928555,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 170.73; Wave 2 184.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 198.00; Wave 3 213.40.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.08\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 170.725998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 198.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.975306818824391,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 184.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 213.399994,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 184.0,
          "confirmation": 213.399994,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.164395251024999,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 170.73; Wave 2 184.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 198.00; Wave 3 213.40.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.08\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 170.725998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 198.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.975306818824391,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 184.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 213.399994,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 184.0,
          "confirmation": 213.399994,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave3_continuation",
    "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 170.725998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -15.52917384116117,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 198.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.975306818824391,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 184.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 213.399994,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "3"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 10.628696367165016,
      "fair_value_gap": -19.756774881351983,
      "market_activity": 57.673059,
      "market_dynamics": 1.542212,
      "relative_strength": 10.996397,
      "roc30": 16.28131768881317,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 10.6% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.2333922974374856
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 13.874062966915682
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 23.281332526354728
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 8.371826407911307
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 217.600006,
      "low_52": 163.959924,
      "position_52": 92.17001196978035,
      "drawdown": -1.9301525203083014
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 17.19297338829643,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.415807487266993,
      "active_drawdown": -53.40323042573319
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 184.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 188,
        "date": "2025-01-31",
        "price": 300.137756,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.998548609594273,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 184.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 192.897504,
      "fair_value": 265.941447,
      "trend_gap": 10.628696367165016,
      "fair_value_gap": -19.756774881351983
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 184.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.070707070707071,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 213.399994,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 15.978257608695648,
      "weeks": 14,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "10.6% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+11.0",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+57.7",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+16.3",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 5,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 34
    },
    "volume_ratio": 225.67585091589507,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 48,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 47,
          "positive_rate": 36.2,
          "median_return": -1.75,
          "bar_width": 8.75,
          "average_return": -1.85,
          "best_return": 29.6,
          "worst_return": -17.91
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 40,
          "positive_rate": 40.0,
          "median_return": -3.46,
          "bar_width": 17.3,
          "average_return": -0.59,
          "best_return": 32.09,
          "worst_return": -18.58
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 35,
          "positive_rate": 34.3,
          "median_return": -8.26,
          "bar_width": 41.3,
          "average_return": -2.4,
          "best_return": 42.0,
          "worst_return": -26.51
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 213.40, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 184.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 33,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 585,
          "positive_rate": 46.3,
          "median_return": -0.75,
          "average_return": -0.5,
          "median_excess_return": -1.14,
          "excess_observations": 585,
          "p10": -10.29,
          "p90": 9.36
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 227,
          "positive_rate": 50.2,
          "median_return": 0.07,
          "average_return": -0.49,
          "median_excess_return": -2.58,
          "excess_observations": 227,
          "p10": -19.53,
          "p90": 17.86
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 131,
          "positive_rate": 48.1,
          "median_return": -0.96,
          "average_return": 0.2,
          "median_excess_return": -4.0,
          "excess_observations": 131,
          "p10": -21.88,
          "p90": 24.59
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^FTSE",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 13.776942280513838,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 46,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 7,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 36,
          "explanation": "Price is 10.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 69,
          "explanation": "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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