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          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 5.39; Wave 2 5.60.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 132,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 5.385218,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.333329077857,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 151,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 6.2,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.129972454225625,
              "weeks": 19,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 158,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 5.6,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -9.677419354838719,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 5.385218,
          "confirmation": 6.2,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 45,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 132,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 5.385218,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.333329077857,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 151,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 6.2,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.129972454225625,
        "weeks": 19,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 158,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 5.6,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.677419354838719,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -1.6034767708650832,
      "fair_value_gap": -29.72471413645102,
      "market_activity": -8.203489,
      "market_dynamics": -0.138529,
      "relative_strength": -12.72034,
      "roc30": -4.677330209473273,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 1.6% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -4.273504273504273
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -2.6086956521739193
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 3.9883622167199095
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -32.31525812301509
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 8.469478,
      "low_52": 4.58233,
      "position_52": 26.18037697561296,
      "drawdown": -33.88022260639913
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 17.43221094961195,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.911954158437803,
      "active_drawdown": -55.737397567643534
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 132,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 5.385218,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.333329077857,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 151,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 6.2,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.129972454225625,
        "weeks": 19,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 132,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 5.385218,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.333329077857,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 5.691258,
      "fair_value": 7.968662,
      "trend_gap": -1.6034767708650832,
      "fair_value_gap": -29.72471413645102
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 151,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 6.2,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.129972454225625,
        "weeks": 19,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 158,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 5.6,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.677419354838719,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": -9.677419354838719,
      "weeks": 7,
      "status": "Forming"
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    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "1.6% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-12.7",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-8.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-4.7",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 6,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 86,
      "history_score": 61,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 159,
      "confirmed_pivots": 17
    },
    "volume_ratio": 64.69590030919406,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 28,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 28,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.2,
          "bar_width": 1.0,
          "average_return": -1.16,
          "best_return": 42.59,
          "worst_return": -26.28
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 28,
          "positive_rate": 46.4,
          "median_return": -9.48,
          "bar_width": 47.400000000000006,
          "average_return": -2.83,
          "best_return": 50.0,
          "worst_return": -36.55
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 28,
          "positive_rate": 60.7,
          "median_return": 13.54,
          "bar_width": 67.69999999999999,
          "average_return": 2.16,
          "best_return": 36.16,
          "worst_return": -46.88
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 6.20, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5.39; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 494,
          "positive_rate": 47.2,
          "median_return": 0.0,
          "average_return": 0.24,
          "median_excess_return": 0.06,
          "excess_observations": 494,
          "p10": -9.07,
          "p90": 9.86
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 188,
          "positive_rate": 52.1,
          "median_return": 0.3,
          "average_return": 1.37,
          "median_excess_return": -0.15,
          "excess_observations": 188,
          "p10": -16.01,
          "p90": 17.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 107,
          "positive_rate": 44.9,
          "median_return": -0.55,
          "average_return": 3.06,
          "median_excess_return": -2.09,
          "excess_observations": 107,
          "p10": -22.47,
          "p90": 30.01
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 3.83539285714285,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 25,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 1.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 26% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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