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        "label": "10w",
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 35.43; Wave 2 35.97.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 38.62; Wave 3 47.98.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 38.62; Wave 4 42.56.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.19, 12.01, 10.74.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 47.98; Wave 5 53.30.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.76\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 233,
          "date": "2025-12-19",
          "price": 35.426323,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.3271734126651555,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 241,
          "date": "2026-02-13",
          "price": 38.616837,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 9.00605462215201,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 246,
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "price": 35.971046,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 254,
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "price": 47.98,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 265,
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 42.560001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
          "weeks": 11,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 53.299999,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 42.560001,
      "confirmation": 53.299999,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 76
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 35.97; Wave 2 42.56.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 47.98; Wave 3 53.30.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 246,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 35.971046,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 254,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 47.98,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 42.560001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
            "weeks": 11,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 53.299999,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 42.560001,
        "confirmation": 53.299999,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 72,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 35.97; Wave B 42.56.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 12.01; C length 10.74.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.89\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 246,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 35.971046,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 254,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 47.98,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 42.560001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
            "weeks": 11,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 53.299999,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 53.299999,
        "confirmation": 42.560001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 11
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.691984865872197,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 30.79; Wave 2 32.78.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 37.82; Wave 3 47.98.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 37.82; Wave 4 42.56.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 7.03, 15.20, 10.74.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 47.98; Wave 5 53.30.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.16\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 11w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 196,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 30.794209,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.146823050721324,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 208,
              "date": "2025-06-27",
              "price": 37.81921,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 22.812734043598912,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 219,
              "date": "2025-09-12",
              "price": 32.78054,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.323044029740432,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 47.98,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 46.367326468691466,
              "weeks": 35,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 42.560001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 53.299999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 42.560001,
          "confirmation": 53.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.0574905411701225,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 35.43; Wave 2 35.97.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 38.62; Wave 3 47.98.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 38.62; Wave 4 42.56.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.19, 12.01, 10.74.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 47.98; Wave 5 53.30.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.76\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 233,
              "date": "2025-12-19",
              "price": 35.426323,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.3271734126651555,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 241,
              "date": "2026-02-13",
              "price": 38.616837,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.00605462215201,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 35.971046,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 47.98,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 42.560001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 53.299999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 42.560001,
          "confirmation": 53.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 76
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.240243378819086,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 35.97; Wave 2 42.56.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 47.98; Wave 3 52.20.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 47.98; Wave 4 49.18.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 12.01, 9.64, 4.12.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 52.20; Wave 5 53.30.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.80\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 11w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 35.971046,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 47.98,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 42.560001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 52.200001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 22.650375407650955,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 268,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 49.18,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.785442417903403,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 53.299999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.377387149247662,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 49.18,
          "confirmation": 53.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 55,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 233,
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "price": 35.426323,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.3271734126651555,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 241,
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "price": 38.616837,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.00605462215201,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 246,
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "price": 35.971046,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.851392308489678,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 47.98,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 33.38505641453962,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 42.560001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 53.299999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 17.083386877566134,
      "fair_value_gap": 43.90274733568649,
      "market_activity": 83.707454,
      "market_dynamics": 1.331009,
      "relative_strength": 15.926391,
      "roc30": 42.39867826238985,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 17.1% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.598648650651613
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 24.59093091610405
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 34.63147122091853
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 49.06151094679232
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 55.25,
      "low_52": 33.636531,
      "position_52": 90.97784349194477,
      "drawdown": -3.529413574660634
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 30.807342280905203,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.060589363288784,
      "active_drawdown": -1.9319209542565203
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 42.560001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 45.52311,
      "fair_value": 37.038903,
      "trend_gap": 17.083386877566134,
      "fair_value_gap": 43.90274733568649
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 42.560001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.296371404751975,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 53.299999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 25.234957113840295,
      "weeks": 10,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "17.1% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+15.9",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+83.7",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.3",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+42.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 6,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 34
    },
    "volume_ratio": 198.832151114943,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 81,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 80,
          "positive_rate": 45.0,
          "median_return": -1.11,
          "bar_width": 5.550000000000001,
          "average_return": -0.43,
          "best_return": 16.06,
          "worst_return": -14.8
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 75,
          "positive_rate": 57.3,
          "median_return": 2.36,
          "bar_width": 11.799999999999999,
          "average_return": 1.65,
          "best_return": 24.25,
          "worst_return": -27.09
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 63,
          "positive_rate": 39.7,
          "median_return": -3.58,
          "bar_width": 17.9,
          "average_return": -1.85,
          "best_return": 40.93,
          "worst_return": -28.15
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 42.56; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 11,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 64,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 36,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 251,
          "positive_rate": 44.2,
          "median_return": -0.7,
          "average_return": -0.06,
          "median_excess_return": -1.11,
          "excess_observations": 251,
          "p10": -12.24,
          "p90": 13.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 103,
          "positive_rate": 42.7,
          "median_return": -1.58,
          "average_return": 0.85,
          "median_excess_return": -1.53,
          "excess_observations": 103,
          "p10": -19.87,
          "p90": 27.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 58,
          "positive_rate": 43.1,
          "median_return": -2.45,
          "average_return": 4.08,
          "median_excess_return": -5.99,
          "excess_observations": 58,
          "p10": -34.76,
          "p90": 42.99
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^AEX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 20.150090434335656,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 63,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 17,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 86,
          "explanation": "Price is 17.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 17.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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