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"2026-01-09", "value": 0.2372233937568918 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.3677344030379255 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.2800446699844257 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.24878282057749357 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.024543643152964617 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.11908351160395136 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -0.1593184299042824 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.13907501434162697 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.017535385264825815 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.04435339341613101 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.02325600779185505 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.130499110656406 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.25566499397884684 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.1370757571323511 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.1155340054434081 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.3200105320459652 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.2048356020456264 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.2232617879123583 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.28570383301433705 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.3393141650947274 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.48228592236674206 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.5727478506193119 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.42430993116822013 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.4796931974483794 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.23002888192124277 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.2141725173211931 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.26738733248516167 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.22721622613891748 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.15453045547986383 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.19210271655228642 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.41195052264683657 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.52; Wave 2 11.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12.45; Wave 3 13.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 59% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.908004665864635, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 12.45, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.033229459455516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.417670682730916, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.243697478991594, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.9, "confirmation": 13.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 67, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.52; Wave B 11.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.93; C length 1.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.19\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.908004665864635, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 12.45, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.033229459455516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.417670682730916, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.243697478991594, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.0, "confirmation": 11.9, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.859790396459449, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.162368997787155, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.313658298451008, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.52; Wave 2 11.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12.45; Wave 3 13.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 59% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.908004665864635, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 12.45, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.033229459455516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.417670682730916, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.243697478991594, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.9, "confirmation": 13.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.908004665864635, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 12.45, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.033229459455516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.417670682730916, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.243697478991594, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.078079928063238, "fair_value_gap": 16.5703810264309, "market_activity": 6.685734, "market_dynamics": 0.110385, "relative_strength": 0.16517, "roc30": 4.585679806918748, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 8.1% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.41767068273093 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.245524108051354 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 15.967885816235496 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 8.063175394846223 } ], "range": { "high_52": 13.68, "low_52": 10.36, "position_52": 79.51807228915663, "drawdown": -4.970760233918127 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 32.479111972893044, "average_weekly_range": 4.918477978431145, "active_drawdown": -4.761904761904764 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.289199700587835, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 68, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.65, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 57.13163509913221, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.289199700587835, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 12.028341, "fair_value": 11.152061, "trend_gap": 8.078079928063238, "fair_value_gap": 16.5703810264309 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 11.524232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.289199700587835, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.805781764893318, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 12.805781764893318, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 109, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 18.199248600330638, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 20, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -1.6, "bar_width": 8.0, "average_return": -1.55, "best_return": 5.65, "worst_return": -11.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 11.8, "median_return": -7.38, "bar_width": 36.9, "average_return": -6.41, "best_return": 5.21, "worst_return": -13.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 5.9, "median_return": -6.61, "bar_width": 33.050000000000004, "average_return": -6.4, "best_return": 2.58, "worst_return": -15.33 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 13.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.90; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 38, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 441, "positive_rate": 63.9, "median_return": 0.34, "average_return": 0.57, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 441, "p10": -4.66, "p90": 5.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 149, "positive_rate": 70.5, "median_return": 1.11, "average_return": 2.48, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 149, "p10": -6.07, "p90": 11.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 78, "positive_rate": 78.2, "median_return": 2.99, "average_return": 5.68, "median_excess_return": 1.91, "excess_observations": 78, "p10": -8.65, "p90": 19.74 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.46153846153846, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 3, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "Price is 8.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 3, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 18, "explanation": "Price is 80% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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