{ "ticker": { "symbol": "C051", "name": "Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 50.990002, "latest_open": 50.450001, "latest_high": 51.57, "latest_low": 50.450001, "bar_count": 122, "analysis_bar_count": 122, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 37.308945, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 34.306087, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.048627480621613, "weeks": 2, 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1.1751886947429073 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0417692800729708 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.026568780235276 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.973538445414156 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0219396694985179 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.065464142917112 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 34.31; Wave B 43.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 12.61; C length 7.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 34.306087, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.048627480621613, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.768725620033564, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 50.990002, "confirmation": 43.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 34.31; Wave 2 43.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.92; Wave 3 50.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.59\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 34.306087, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.048627480621613, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.768725620033564, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 43.52, "confirmation": 50.990002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.48; Wave 2 43.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.92; Wave 3 50.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 77, "date": "2025-09-19", "price": 41.481438, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.965547539611714, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.110828028671529, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 43.52, "confirmation": 50.990002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 34.31; Wave B 43.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 12.61; C length 7.47.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 34.306087, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.048627480621613, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.768725620033564, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 50.990002, "confirmation": 43.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.48; Wave 2 43.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 46.92; Wave 3 50.99.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 77, "date": "2025-09-19", "price": 41.481438, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.965547539611714, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.110828028671529, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 43.52, "confirmation": 50.990002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 44, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 34.306087, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.048627480621613, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 46.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.768725620033564, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.470902825051043, "fair_value_gap": 31.79121336461585, "market_activity": 50.475265, "market_dynamics": 1.36571, "relative_strength": 9.231536, "roc30": 14.738980979725037, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 8.5% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.509122678640651 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 9.057856719968838 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.842377453842879 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.319856505900926 } ], "range": { "high_52": 51.57, "low_52": 40.101747, "position_52": 94.94257756608611, "drawdown": -1.1246810160946352 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.685834700059266, "average_weekly_range": 1.8309586111031273, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 47.008, "fair_value": 38.689986, "trend_gap": 8.470902825051043, "fair_value_gap": 31.79121336461585 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 43.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.246372857901649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 50.990002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.16452665441175, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+50.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 7, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 122, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 81.9588752452227, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 79.1, "median_return": 2.03, "bar_width": 10.149999999999999, "average_return": 1.18, "best_return": 5.57, "worst_return": -7.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 88.2, "median_return": 3.8, "bar_width": 19.0, "average_return": 3.58, "best_return": 10.43, "worst_return": -3.04 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 10.12, "bar_width": 50.599999999999994, "average_return": 9.8, "best_return": 12.39, "worst_return": 5.28 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 43.52, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 50.99; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 25, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 19, "explanation": "Price is 8.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 12, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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