{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7754", "name": "AnnJi", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 54.900002, "latest_open": 55.0, "latest_high": 55.099998, "latest_low": 53.200001, "bar_count": 110, "analysis_bar_count": 110, "reversal_percent": 8.125785993811654, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 9, "date": "2024-08-30", "price": 38.349998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 25, "date": "2024-12-20", "price": 30.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.773138032497418, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 27, 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"2026-07-03", "value": 0.3673616259912834 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.5115194636235043 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.3480208476464367 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.2641782868846073 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.035638081213112766 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.10372978136730215 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.1580077793594589 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.90; Wave 2 63.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 58.20; Wave 3 54.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 58.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.285715337681433, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 63.5, "confirmation": 54.900002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 18 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 72, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.90; Wave B 63.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 9.70; C length 8.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.89\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 58.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.285715337681433, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 54.900002, "confirmation": 63.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.10; Wave 2 40.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.60; Wave 3 67.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 50.60; Wave 4 54.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.81\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 19w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 40, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -45.608108108108105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 68, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 214.285701863354, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 72, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 40.099998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.750988962489682, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.14580208701614, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 40.099998, "confirmation": 67.900002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 67 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 13.001257590098646, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.10; Wave 2 40.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.60; Wave 3 67.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 50.60; Wave 4 54.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.81\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 19w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 40, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -45.608108108108105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 68, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 214.285701863354, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 72, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 40.099998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.750988962489682, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.14580208701614, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 40.099998, "confirmation": 67.900002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 67 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.125785993811654, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.90; Wave 2 63.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 58.20; Wave 3 54.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 58.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.285715337681433, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 63.5, "confirmation": 54.900002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 18 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.688050195668158, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.90; Wave 2 63.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 58.20; Wave 3 54.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.57143265306122, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 58.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.285715337681433, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 63.5, "confirmation": 54.900002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.900002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.32669672452353, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 58.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.285715337681433, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -5.99314726027397, "fair_value_gap": 31.415457650484644, "market_activity": -4.56662, "market_dynamics": -1.2017, "relative_strength": -25.342552, "roc30": 9.909911713515282, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 6.0% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.852684491287963 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -8.499996666666666 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.800004000000001 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 34.22982717702556 } ], "range": { "high_52": 71.199997, "low_52": 38.0, "position_52": 50.903625081652876, "drawdown": -22.893252369097706 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 35.9389456472118, "average_weekly_range": 7.1463962941651324, "active_drawdown": -19.14580208701614 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 72, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 40.099998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.750988962489682, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 58.4, "fair_value": 41.775909, "trend_gap": -5.99314726027397, "fair_value_gap": 31.415457650484644 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 63.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.106527334939393, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 54.900002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -13.543303937007874, "weeks": 5, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "6.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-25.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-4.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 110, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 62.174390031400804, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 8, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 7, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -0.68, "bar_width": 3.4000000000000004, "average_return": -0.28, "best_return": 9.11, "worst_return": -12.08 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 54.90, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 63.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 47.2, "median_return": -0.06, "average_return": 1.43, "median_excess_return": -1.42, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -6.35, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 99, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -0.76, "average_return": 2.5, "median_excess_return": -5.77, "excess_observations": 99, "p10": -14.77, "p90": 16.29 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 49.4, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 7.66, "median_excess_return": -5.33, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -20.18, "p90": 41.92 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.664840959386485, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 51% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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