{ "ticker": { "symbol": "MARM", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MAX BUFFER ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 34.41, "latest_open": 34.311, "latest_high": 34.82, "latest_low": 34.311, "bar_count": 124, "analysis_bar_count": 124, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-29", "price": 29.1643, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.41, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.986716636435627, "weeks": 123, "confirmed": false } ], 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1.221689843081953 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2522668837453237 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.2727128284426135 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2377710063120089 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1998776476267203 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2007622245293255 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.1211209331183947 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.0503547733978267 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.9955724017095698 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.8880652232503532 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.848216545832952 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8522652142574598 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8465492766736107 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8150411912555962 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8227082464166101 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8838101867922818 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "all", "title": "Mixed wave-cycle structure", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 28, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.9508643054143178, "fair_value_gap": 8.266075537879601, "market_activity": 53.55027, "market_dynamics": -0.231466, "relative_strength": -7.984821, "roc30": 4.052010885999384, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as mixed wave-cycle structure. Price is 2.0% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.5649288213065362 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.1315209404849318 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.660502065076261 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 6.504150597673679 } ], "range": { "high_52": 34.82, "low_52": 32.2894, "position_52": 83.79830870149357, "drawdown": -1.1774842044801943 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 1.695584114651498, "average_weekly_range": 0.4958812151209832, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 33.751553, "fair_value": 31.782809, "trend_gap": 1.9508643054143178, "fair_value_gap": 8.266075537879601 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-29", "price": 29.1643, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 34.41, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.986716636435627, "weeks": 123, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.986716636435627, "weeks": 123, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+53.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "mixed", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 65, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 124, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 156.7735369827166, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 94.6, "median_return": 0.39, "bar_width": 1.9500000000000002, "average_return": 0.47, "best_return": 1.88, "worst_return": -0.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 1.46, "bar_width": 7.3, "average_return": 1.71, "best_return": 2.74, "worst_return": 0.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 3.37, "bar_width": 16.85, "average_return": 3.21, "best_return": 4.17, "worst_return": 2.13 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 24, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 5, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 35, "explanation": "Price is 84% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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