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    "crest_alignment": 0,
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        "label": "10w",
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        "timing_available": false,
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        "value": 1.0008673325602797
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      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "value": 1.0296726806562124
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      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "value": 1.041159104469748
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      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "value": 0.9913502164886208
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      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "value": 0.9543351778817423
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      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "value": 0.9733262650704937
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "value": 0.9826388779460014
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "value": 0.9997857927757461
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "value": 1.0953223610234921
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "value": 0.9344276375790339
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": 0.7736349999874091
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": 0.4231831288765122
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": 0.223742529659115
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.28590339224303796
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.47078504735631505
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.524728311849152
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.46843643638348886
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.4457446408566781
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.40692476030394364
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.2317630944782406
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.09422018488808803
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": -0.005876006644423087
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.03520343020839048
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.1043678441310277
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.2763870293097091
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.513613540635641
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.683074089379269
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.7886028437941092
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.8223284507247555
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.9039884790698366
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.9699269284857814
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.939328398489995
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.7902304753452232
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.6042310368756119
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.48648713766692175
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.3720352771674273
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.2513970708405678
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.2650167502228975
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "value": 0.22574803643963298
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "value": 0.09876381891760566
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "value": 0.011981655094086552
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": 0.012651896548908331
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "value": 0.06132370314964762
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": 0.21350719379360977
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": 0.36158994804923206
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "value": 0.4446182505864543
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      {
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "value": 0.45754900843636787
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 6.59; Wave 2 6.07.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 239,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 6.59,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 248,
          "date": "2026-08-21",
          "price": 5.45427,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 255,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 6.07,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 6.59,
      "confirmation": 5.45427,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 35
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 61,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 5.18; Wave B 5.45.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 1.41; C length 0.62.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.44\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 230,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 5.18,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.604095563139941,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 239,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 6.59,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "price": 5.45427,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 255,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 6.07,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 6.07,
        "confirmation": 5.45427,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 30
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 6.59; Wave 2 6.07.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 239,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 6.59,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "price": 5.45427,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 255,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 6.07,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 6.59,
        "confirmation": 5.45427,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 35
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.20216880964709,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 6.59; Wave 2 6.07.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 239,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 6.59,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 5.45427,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 255,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 6.07,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 6.59,
          "confirmation": 5.45427,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 35
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.126355506029431,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 6.59; Wave 2 6.07.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 239,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 6.59,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 5.45427,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 255,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 6.07,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 6.59,
          "confirmation": 5.45427,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 35
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5884488542206014,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 52,
      "changes": 3,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 37,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 6.59,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 5.45427,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 255,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 6.07,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 4.025709259967621,
      "fair_value_gap": 35.490224614667596,
      "market_activity": 21.944791,
      "market_dynamics": 0.082595,
      "relative_strength": 6.503906,
      "roc30": 11.172161172161177,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 4.0% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 6.491228070175441
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.0168067226890773
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 16.06118546845124
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 15.10021967644892
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 6.7,
      "low_52": 4.91,
      "position_52": 64.80446927374302,
      "drawdown": -9.402985074626864
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 21.302998838327696,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.0104245902660454,
      "active_drawdown": -7.890743550834592
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 5.45427,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 6.59,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 6.59,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 27.220077220077222,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 5.835096,
      "fair_value": 4.480028,
      "trend_gap": 4.025709259967621,
      "fair_value_gap": 35.490224614667596
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 5.45427,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -17.234142640364183,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 255,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 6.07,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 11.28895342548132,
      "weeks": 7,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "4.0% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+6.5",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+21.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+11.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 7,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 99,
      "history_score": 98,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 256,
      "confirmed_pivots": 20
    },
    "volume_ratio": 152.1837045070812,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 125,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 125,
          "positive_rate": 65.6,
          "median_return": 2.19,
          "bar_width": 10.95,
          "average_return": 1.98,
          "best_return": 22.77,
          "worst_return": -20.99
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 123,
          "positive_rate": 64.2,
          "median_return": 7.09,
          "bar_width": 35.45,
          "average_return": 5.39,
          "best_return": 32.75,
          "worst_return": -21.72
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 114,
          "positive_rate": 80.7,
          "median_return": 12.29,
          "bar_width": 61.449999999999996,
          "average_return": 13.52,
          "best_return": 42.47,
          "worst_return": -11.47
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 5.45, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.59; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 742,
          "positive_rate": 54.4,
          "median_return": 0.67,
          "average_return": 2.15,
          "median_excess_return": 0.67,
          "excess_observations": 742,
          "p10": -7.08,
          "p90": 11.53
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 268,
          "positive_rate": 61.2,
          "median_return": 2.79,
          "average_return": 6.85,
          "median_excess_return": 2.54,
          "excess_observations": 268,
          "p10": -11.0,
          "p90": 22.43
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 145,
          "positive_rate": 66.9,
          "median_return": 8.49,
          "average_return": 15.78,
          "median_excess_return": 4.75,
          "excess_observations": 145,
          "p10": -12.95,
          "p90": 39.2
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^AXJO",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-29",
      "earnings_weeks": 3,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "mixed",
      "options_conviction": 8.62,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 8.566721581548592,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 4.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 65% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 48,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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