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"date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.08677609393589239 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.122746452629026 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.03323564745385811 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.16830064365173097 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.3003343609768643 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.3882148653293125 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 0.3801835167022085 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 110.73; Wave 2 115.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 110.729378, "confirmation": 116.487312, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 117.82; Wave B 116.49.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.09; C length 1.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.21\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 117.816063, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.163091796423647, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 115.0, "confirmation": 116.487312, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 103.20; Wave 2 115.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 103.199783, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.09722361862119, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 117.816063, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.163091796423647, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3902199142403866, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 103.199783, "confirmation": 117.816063, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 103.20; Wave 2 115.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 103.199783, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.09722361862119, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 117.816063, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.163091796423647, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3902199142403866, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 103.199783, "confirmation": 117.816063, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 110.73; Wave 2 115.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 110.729378, "confirmation": 116.487312, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 110.73; Wave 2 115.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 110.729378, "confirmation": 116.487312, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Activity is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.8503267189976644, "fair_value_gap": -1.1783425686612004, "market_activity": 66.872466, "market_dynamics": -0.039228, "relative_strength": -28.111107, "roc30": 9.09328068396743, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 3.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.7699115044247788 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.6364353181452002 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.553589319489115 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -7.928366796221331 } ], "range": { "high_52": 129.774845, "low_52": 99.656446, "position_52": 50.94412222907333, "drawdown": -11.384983738566593 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.311085741819404, "average_weekly_range": 3.911663116279789, "active_drawdown": -18.80612067986078 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 110.729378, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.015041429452623, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 110.736291, "fair_value": 116.371252, "trend_gap": 3.8503267189976644, "fair_value_gap": -1.1783425686612004 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 116.487312, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.200005729283521, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 115.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -1.2768017172548396, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-28.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+66.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 21.083274690071146, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 20, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 47.4, "median_return": -0.42, "bar_width": 2.1, "average_return": -1.11, "best_return": 8.27, "worst_return": -9.19 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -9.74, "bar_width": 48.7, "average_return": -10.06, "best_return": -3.38, "worst_return": -16.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -12.96, "bar_width": 64.80000000000001, "average_return": -12.01, "best_return": -0.75, "worst_return": -18.75 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 116.49, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 110.73; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 885, "positive_rate": 59.7, "median_return": 2.7, "average_return": 5.32, "median_excess_return": 0.97, "excess_observations": 885, "p10": -10.59, "p90": 23.74 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 302, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 8.73, "average_return": 19.68, "median_excess_return": 4.94, "excess_observations": 302, "p10": -13.7, "p90": 60.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 163, "positive_rate": 71.8, "median_return": 16.39, "average_return": 39.53, "median_excess_return": 7.78, "excess_observations": 163, "p10": -13.83, "p90": 133.04 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.7135843478260897, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 20, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 51% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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