{ "ticker": { "symbol": "3434", "name": "E Fund Etfs Trust - E Fund (hk) Wind Digital Technology Index Etf", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 13.97, "latest_open": 14.0, "latest_high": 14.41, "latest_low": 13.97, "bar_count": 27, "analysis_bar_count": 27, "reversal_percent": 8.766308499261616, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 19, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 13.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 20, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 12.6, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.612625538020087, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 26, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.97, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.873015873015882, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "troughing", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": -2.5916867222939346, "slope": 4.383697112034307, "dominant_period_weeks": 40, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 6, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 14, "series": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.091514957553008 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -4.275599727966474 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -6.041237237103589 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -6.975383834328241 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -7.225950070049002 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -4.669713132633315 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -3.2953368656178696 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -2.5916867222939346 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "rising", "alignment_score": 75, "risk_score": 25, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 14, "nearest_crest_window": 16, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 10, "period_range": [ 8, 12 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "rising", "value": 0.4088453615935338, "slope": 1.75969380539332, "amplitude": 2.305, "weeks_since_trough": 5, "weeks_since_crest": 12, "projected_trough_window": 5, "projected_crest_window": 8, "trough_window": { "start": 3, "midpoint": 5, "end": 7 }, "crest_window": { "start": 6, "midpoint": 8, "end": 10 }, "fld": { "value": 13.355, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 1, "displacement": 5, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 12.867777777777778, "state": "price above", "slope": -0.0944444444444444, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 12, 21 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.19981804509626988 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.7455261427373442 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.08936241712495496 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0409243894517601 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.5880241089353002 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1909459212581242 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7138155550296434 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.17960935762449426 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.348366513017612 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.7315273210446849 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -2.5771757736815615 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -2.8590585912271873 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.888488800111041 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.350848443799786 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7524480582634385 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.1452191869071605 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.4088453615935338 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 15, 25 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "troughing", "value": -0.4497626796851452, "slope": 0.5016330393231834, "amplitude": 4.968, "weeks_since_trough": 6, "weeks_since_crest": 4, "projected_trough_window": 14, "projected_crest_window": 16, "trough_window": { "start": 9, "midpoint": 14, "end": 19 }, "crest_window": { "start": 11, "midpoint": 16, "end": 21 }, "fld": { "value": 14.45, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 6, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [ 20 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.2159972964858412 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.0719990988286137 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.9240805433762553 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.9513957190083286 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7921563739015766 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.5995234963774467 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.4497626796851452 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 14.79, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.1998180450962699 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.7455261427373442 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.08936241712495496 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0409243894517601 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.5880241089353004 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1909459212581242 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7138155550296434 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.17960935762449426 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.348366513017612 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.2926109284178737 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.760468687364129 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.7868228957880432 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.3098438460701693 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.1111768089249114 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7762730476463212 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.4178017725893322 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.1063194631736736 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 14.026093598818585, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.766308499261616, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.136415949483131, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.4524328249818523 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -8.45347313237221 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -8.980147638500677 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 15.73, "low_52": 12.55, "position_52": 44.65408805031447, "drawdown": -11.188811188811187 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 28.002743885388252, "average_weekly_range": 2.2152086010484173, "active_drawdown": -8.980147638500677 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 12.6, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.612625538020087, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 12.6, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.612625538020087, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": null, "fair_value": 14.309937, "trend_gap": null, "fair_value_gap": -2.3755310732674717 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 12.6, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.612625538020087, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 26, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.97, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.873015873015882, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 10.873015873015882, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 0, "neutral": 2, "observed": 3, "agreement": 33, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 27, "history_score": 10, "indicator_coverage": 38, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 27, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 3.6064536539069914, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 45% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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