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-0.18977870838117233 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 0.0694364785335458 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.1240960279331705 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": -0.04540487865848439 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": -0.4837951986418672 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": -0.6192685564013615 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": -0.9113307828180303 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": -1.164517382155007 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": -1.456465951393075 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": -1.6162387877010083 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": -1.720438930292736 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": -1.652652197266339 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": -1.7568509570845716 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": -1.5671563687103598 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": -1.6339023871182563 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": -1.7304970186283046 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": -1.7349494340437466 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -1.7608481943553747 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -1.864886378473425 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -2.0725047967527233 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -2.283445434935117 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -2.3665022860650256 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -2.3749129740314685 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -2.360736039695768 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -2.383589874130975 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -2.3905410644255873 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -2.348950582643164 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -2.261203322150314 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -2.0310282162962663 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -1.891563762382506 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -1.8546596753554272 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -1.9215789671585934 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -1.9195903087162693 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -1.8760034879696914 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -1.814463881764643 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -1.7148920348516867 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -1.557004916071386 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.4510044459230416 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.321740201114905 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.3247219942711064 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.2372994742704018 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.8608169911981787 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.5685684318587434 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.35771480551836593 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.16396660745908587 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.16974938661825312 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.3488075652951319 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.4811014601538509 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.8087975187933409 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.9898518070960812 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.1357368755955075 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.3507422994312508 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.397512653818894 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.4243113625036874 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.4250846835278754 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.4219147080526664 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.382464054481398 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.278623943534129 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.15; Wave 2 2.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.15, "confirmation": 1.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1.47; Wave B 1.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.68; C length 0.28.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.40\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1.47, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -83.40857787810384, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 1.995, "confirmation": 1.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 87, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.10; Wave 2 8.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.90; Wave 3 1.47.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.90; Wave 4 2.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 51.20, 7.39, 0.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 1.47; Wave 5 2.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.14\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 9% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 55.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.842227378190255, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 3.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -92.92196007259528, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 8.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 127.17948717948715, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1.47, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -83.40857787810384, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.209302325581387, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 2.15, "confirmation": 1.995, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 82 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 87, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.10; Wave 2 8.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.90; Wave 3 1.47.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.90; Wave 4 2.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 51.20, 7.39, 0.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 1.47; Wave 5 2.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.14\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 9% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 55.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.842227378190255, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 3.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -92.92196007259528, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 8.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 127.17948717948715, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1.47, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -83.40857787810384, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.209302325581387, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 2.15, "confirmation": 1.995, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 82 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.15; Wave 2 2.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.15, "confirmation": 1.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.15; Wave 2 2.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.15, "confirmation": 1.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -60.31035511787526, "fair_value_gap": -95.98149594705163, "market_activity": -55.002755, "market_dynamics": 0.258106, "relative_strength": -89.564028, "roc30": -77.27790432801821, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 60.3% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.400000000000006 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -77.48306997742662 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -63.85869565217391 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -97.39556135770235 } ], "range": { "high_52": 83.9, "low_52": 1.46, "position_52": 0.6489568170790879, "drawdown": -97.62216924910607 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 159.56919530935, "average_weekly_range": 40.94293706999547, "active_drawdown": -99.04636711281071 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 2.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.25850340136054, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 5.0265, "fair_value": 49.64534, "trend_gap": -60.31035511787526, "fair_value_gap": -95.98149594705163 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.999999999999996, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1.995, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.988372093023264, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "60.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-89.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-55.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-77.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 77, "history_score": 38, "indicator_coverage": 98, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 99, "confirmed_pivots": 18 }, "volume_ratio": 236.94688739623774, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 28, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 29.6, "median_return": -19.4, "bar_width": 97.0, "average_return": -11.77, "best_return": 104.62, "worst_return": -76.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 27.8, "median_return": -39.9, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -27.96, "best_return": 60.51, "worst_return": -77.94 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -78.64, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -78.93, "best_return": -75.76, "worst_return": -82.35 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 1.72, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 2.15; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 209, "positive_rate": 53.1, "median_return": 0.2, "average_return": 1.12, "median_excess_return": -0.72, "excess_observations": 209, "p10": -6.59, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 85, "positive_rate": 54.1, "median_return": 0.64, "average_return": 1.62, "median_excess_return": -1.46, "excess_observations": 85, "p10": -11.01, "p90": 19.92 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 49, "positive_rate": 51.0, "median_return": 0.32, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -7.82, "excess_observations": 49, "p10": -11.31, "p90": 17.87 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "volatility", "options_conviction": 49.96, "expected_move": 13.63636364, "invalidation_distance": 7.769423558897233, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 9, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 60.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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