{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "M44",
    "name": "MARA Holdings, Inc.",
    "exchange": "GER"
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    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports"
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        {
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        {
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      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 50
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    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 11.06; Wave 2 10.10.",
            "hard": true
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        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
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        ],
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          {
            "index": 73,
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          {
            "index": 76,
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            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
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        ],
        "invalidation": 11.058,
        "confirmation": 7.844,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 50
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    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 11.06; Wave 2 10.10.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
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          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 73,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 11.058,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.23657537200777,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 76,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 7.844,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -29.064930367155,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 83,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 10.098,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 28.735339112697606,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 11.058,
          "confirmation": 7.844,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 11.06; Wave 2 10.10.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 73,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
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              "kind": "high",
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              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 76,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 7.844,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -29.064930367155,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 83,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 10.098,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 28.735339112697606,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
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          ],
          "invalidation": 11.058,
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          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
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    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 4,
      "changes": 6,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 37,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 73,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "label": "0"
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      {
        "index": 76,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
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        "weeks": 3,
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      {
        "index": 83,
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        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 28.735339112697606,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
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    ],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 0.2926642838634025,
      "fair_value_gap": -11.113254987181922,
      "market_activity": 14.438717,
      "market_dynamics": 0.060801,
      "relative_strength": -2.60627,
      "roc30": 43.64153627311523,
      "hurst_alignment": 100,
      "hurst_risk": 0
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  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.3% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
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        "weeks": 4,
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        "weeks": 26,
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      {
        "weeks": 52,
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      "support": {
        "index": 76,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 7.844,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -29.064930367155,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 73,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 11.058,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.23657537200777,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 73,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 11.058,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.23657537200777,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 10.068533,
      "fair_value": 11.360524,
      "trend_gap": 0.2926642838634025,
      "fair_value_gap": -11.113254987181922
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 76,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 7.844,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -29.064930367155,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 83,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 10.098,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 28.735339112697606,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 28.735339112697606,
      "weeks": 7,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "0.3% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-2.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+14.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+43.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 6,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 73,
      "history_score": 32,
      "indicator_coverage": 93,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 84,
      "confirmed_pivots": 16
    },
    "volume_ratio": 247.20918074462847,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 7.84, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.06; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 21,
      "constructive_percent": 88,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 214,
          "positive_rate": 64.5,
          "median_return": 1.83,
          "average_return": 1.38,
          "median_excess_return": 0.25,
          "excess_observations": 214,
          "p10": -7.16,
          "p90": 9.21
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 129,
          "positive_rate": 71.3,
          "median_return": 6.75,
          "average_return": 6.06,
          "median_excess_return": 2.45,
          "excess_observations": 129,
          "p10": -12.4,
          "p90": 21.79
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 102,
          "positive_rate": 75.5,
          "median_return": 12.38,
          "average_return": 13.14,
          "median_excess_return": 8.83,
          "excess_observations": 102,
          "p10": -10.26,
          "p90": 35.57
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 9.506833036244792,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 10,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 30% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 96,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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