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    "risk_score": 50,
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    "crest_alignment": 0,
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        "label": "10w",
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        "timing_available": false,
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      "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
      "direction": "bullish",
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 38.50; Wave 2 39.49.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 45.84; Wave 3 55.10.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.13\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
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        {
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          "weeks": 43,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
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        {
          "index": 196,
          "date": "2025-04-04",
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        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
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          "weeks": 79,
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      ],
      "invalidation": 39.4889,
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      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 76
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 60,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 38.50; Wave B 39.49.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 7.34; C length 15.62.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 2.13\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 146,
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            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 189,
            "date": "2025-02-14",
            "price": 45.835,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.061844101327903,
            "weeks": 43,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 196,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 39.4889,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.845532889713102,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
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          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 55.1043,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 79,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
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        ],
        "invalidation": 55.1043,
        "confirmation": 39.4889,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 24
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 38.50; Wave 2 39.49.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 45.84; Wave 3 55.10.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.13\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 146,
              "date": "2024-04-19",
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              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
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            {
              "index": 189,
              "date": "2025-02-14",
              "price": 45.835,
              "kind": "high",
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              "weeks": 43,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 196,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
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              "kind": "low",
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              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
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            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
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              "kind": "high",
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              "weeks": 79,
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              "label": "3"
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          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 76
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
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    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave3_continuation",
    "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 83,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
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        "price": 38.4968,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -3.8541458541458513,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 189,
        "date": "2025-02-14",
        "price": 45.835,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.061844101327903,
        "weeks": 43,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 39.4889,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.845532889713102,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 55.1043,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 39.54377052792051,
        "weeks": 79,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "3"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 4.179193741296598,
      "fair_value_gap": 22.35767460043567,
      "market_activity": 45.206206,
      "market_dynamics": 0.568336,
      "relative_strength": -0.875376,
      "roc30": 14.20651320111836,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 4.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.183070143224387
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.8654471871015743
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 8.971770405893112
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 18.33768922352052
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 55.11,
      "low_52": 46.6005,
      "position_52": 99.93301604089551,
      "drawdown": -0.010342950462706177
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 4.8982599323681395,
      "average_weekly_range": 0.7202338113981257,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 39.4889,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.492433229854106,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 39.4889,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.492433229854106,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 52.893767,
      "fair_value": 45.035426,
      "trend_gap": 4.179193741296598,
      "fair_value_gap": 22.35767460043567
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 39.4889,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.492433229854106,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 55.1043,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 39.54377052792051,
        "weeks": 79,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 39.54377052792051,
      "weeks": 79,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "4.2% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.9",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+45.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+14.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 87,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 33,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 2
    },
    "volume_ratio": 82.76550198666732,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 146,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 145,
          "positive_rate": 75.9,
          "median_return": 1.05,
          "bar_width": 5.25,
          "average_return": 0.93,
          "best_return": 8.7,
          "worst_return": -9.8
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 136,
          "positive_rate": 85.3,
          "median_return": 3.26,
          "bar_width": 16.299999999999997,
          "average_return": 3.13,
          "best_return": 10.67,
          "worst_return": -11.62
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 127,
          "positive_rate": 89.8,
          "median_return": 7.69,
          "bar_width": 38.45,
          "average_return": 6.93,
          "best_return": 14.88,
          "worst_return": -8.72
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 55.10, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 39.49; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 35,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 420,
          "positive_rate": 64.3,
          "median_return": 0.64,
          "average_return": 0.54,
          "median_excess_return": -0.53,
          "excess_observations": 420,
          "p10": -5.85,
          "p90": 6.63
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 142,
          "positive_rate": 69.0,
          "median_return": 1.94,
          "average_return": 3.05,
          "median_excess_return": -1.1,
          "excess_observations": 142,
          "p10": -11.56,
          "p90": 15.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 76,
          "positive_rate": 67.1,
          "median_return": 3.24,
          "average_return": 3.12,
          "median_excess_return": -2.83,
          "excess_observations": 76,
          "p10": -11.05,
          "p90": 20.13
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 28.337897405465636,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 38,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 4.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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