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"2026-07-10", "value": 0.74536664825918 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6267067925152248 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.4977078617127151 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.98; Wave 2 7.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.984, "confirmation": 7.264, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.47; Wave B 7.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.48; C length 0.21.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.14\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.467, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.67026944740447, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.054, "confirmation": 7.264, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.98; Wave 2 7.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.282431430689401, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7.888, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.818181818181813, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.57302231237322, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.984, "confirmation": 7.888, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 17.01823712628602, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 17.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.636398203928763, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.98; Wave 2 7.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.984, "confirmation": 7.264, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.445478742750134, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.98; Wave 2 7.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.282431430689401, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7.888, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.818181818181813, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.57302231237322, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.984, "confirmation": 7.888, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 66, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.2482645051344017, "fair_value_gap": 19.418832861205157, "market_activity": 22.086973, "market_dynamics": 0.492379, "relative_strength": -3.391615, "roc30": -0.6618786086466654, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 1.2% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -7.330530740935363 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.2985923503483564 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -3.896457765667569 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 3.9186800235710075 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.266, "low_52": 5.9, "position_52": 34.284016636957816, "drawdown": -23.872221023095186 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 36.848902492692446, "average_weekly_range": 5.936992603696582, "active_drawdown": -23.872221023095186 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 5.984, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.860720503548944, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 6.967033, "fair_value": 5.906941, "trend_gap": 1.2482645051344017, "fair_value_gap": 19.418832861205157 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.264, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.390374331550806, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 7.054, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -2.890969162995594, "weeks": 14, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+22.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "mixed", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 118, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 43.877003791039456, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 9, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 6.63, "bar_width": 33.15, "average_return": 9.3, "best_return": 31.01, "worst_return": 1.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 55.6, "median_return": 0.4, "bar_width": 2.0, "average_return": -0.04, "best_return": 12.32, "worst_return": -10.46 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 11.1, "median_return": -5.76, "bar_width": 28.799999999999997, "average_return": -7.37, "best_return": 2.8, "worst_return": -18.7 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 7.26, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5.98; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 54.8, "median_return": 0.36, "average_return": 0.62, "median_excess_return": 0.49, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -3.83, "p90": 4.68 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 47, "positive_rate": 55.3, "median_return": 0.88, "average_return": 1.06, "median_excess_return": -1.32, "excess_observations": 47, "p10": -7.37, "p90": 7.93 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 62.8, "median_return": 2.64, "average_return": 2.66, "median_excess_return": 1.32, "excess_observations": 43, "p10": -9.47, "p90": 12.91 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.168698610717327, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 28, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 34% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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