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1.4786213329701994 }, { "date": "2024-08-30", "value": 1.4363480362381147 }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "value": 1.2330489923016075 }, { "date": "2024-09-13", "value": 1.3460402138623433 }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "value": 1.4841630409418713 }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "value": 1.6380028373199 }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "value": 1.7665885063492008 }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "value": 1.8695060487421884 }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "value": 2.1030748678834703 }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "value": 2.3151743528148696 }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "value": 2.324879078243124 }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "value": 2.23064376841011 }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "value": 2.0122163851200345 }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "value": 1.9642512972557744 }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "value": 1.8600662789156088 }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "value": 1.723215382976951 }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "value": 1.5865284576936216 }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "value": 1.3916476820456447 }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "value": 1.1670825162780343 }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": 1.0855617825926567 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": 1.1061210739178045 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": 1.1210082587351593 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 1.1494030940635978 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 1.2803662043877917 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 1.4850025079169156 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 1.6187349877595016 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 1.6436570976110492 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 1.5039828977755672 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 1.4172567691326896 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": 1.5096926321038802 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": 1.624456510888585 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": 1.7796286553589005 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": 1.553509101312946 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": 1.6494810320861033 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": 1.8542896641460598 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": 1.9393236114244592 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": 1.9361586180728254 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": 2.0339948424920173 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": 1.9537211068072358 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": 2.0278557753495816 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": 2.0719924183099083 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": 2.078223976140399 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": 2.0588081610700706 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": 2.0253308530602867 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 1.9637744443493221 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 1.8943694309267225 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 1.8269947020531636 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 1.759123916980012 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 1.6884642839829018 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 1.6262456476706308 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 1.5625113241791169 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 1.5061916201802954 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 1.4523139223800334 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 1.3988239902039443 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 1.346335084783858 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 1.2954881066853017 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 1.2431916035888158 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.1855234060495397 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.1266995709493033 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.0727068266889606 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.0235783556457083 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.9781268329072467 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.9366968414549286 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.8962598678273992 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.8576685291950916 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.8203553527994414 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.7844916117315339 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.7503727330985079 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.7167025782105898 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.6832923093527247 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.6509810567738026 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.6199323688293417 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.5899881757763992 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.5613579705925199 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.5341414597024137 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.508401604765488 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.48392859840376207 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.46023836374158716 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.4369576112404768 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.41495708156409683 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.3940959297660221 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.37451701660760545 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.3557697641719925 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.33799281621328575 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.3213541176189466 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.305812378261916 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.2912393794371909 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.2776866180114901 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.2649197814663422 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.253021020986475 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.24198351362867637 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.23175735624077234 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.22228125437432708 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.2134679727276293 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.20525499368716252 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.19757591885157644 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.19036447996094086 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.18355177726277028 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.17706951170657742 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.17086868052413173 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.16491450221819184 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.91; Wave 2 8.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.41; Wave 3 9.56.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.44\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 199, "date": "2025-05-09", "price": 9.415, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.04159817928941, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.898, "confirmation": 9.556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 61, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.91; Wave B 8.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.51; C length 0.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.44\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 199, "date": "2025-05-09", "price": 9.415, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.04159817928941, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 9.556, "confirmation": 8.898, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 17 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.08; Wave 2 7.91.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.03; Wave 3 9.56.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 180, "date": "2024-12-27", "price": 7.083, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.36556854410201, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 193, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 9.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.48835239305378, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.824377291693, "weeks": 68, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 7.909, "confirmation": 9.556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.08; Wave 2 7.91.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.03; Wave 3 9.56.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 180, "date": "2024-12-27", "price": 7.083, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.36556854410201, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 193, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 9.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.48835239305378, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.824377291693, "weeks": 68, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 7.909, "confirmation": 9.556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.91; Wave 2 8.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.41; Wave 3 9.56.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.44\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 199, "date": "2025-05-09", "price": 9.415, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.04159817928941, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.898, "confirmation": 9.556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 40, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 194, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.909, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.414174972314502, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 199, "date": "2025-05-09", "price": 9.415, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.04159817928941, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": 18.89164027291329, "market_activity": 0.0, "market_dynamics": -0.470151, "relative_strength": -3.437038, "roc30": 0.0, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 0.0% above its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 0.0 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.556, "low_52": 9.556, "position_52": null, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 0.0, "average_weekly_range": 0.0, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 9.556, "fair_value": 8.037571, "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": 18.89164027291329 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 200, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 8.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.491237387148162, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 262, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 7.394920206788037, "weeks": 62, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 4, "neutral": 2, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 263, "confirmed_pivots": 46 }, "volume_ratio": 25.89607100952583, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 9.56, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 8.90; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.885726245290913, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 22, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Range position is unavailable." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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