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"2026-02-06", "value": 0.7051020014967693 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.5791237514909138 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.519570212256417 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.415535624663375 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.2260357383703644 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.17758757332265573 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.5790962410851035 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.9472276341460765 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.2373079370330564 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.2007655428037929 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.9899105984956738 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.8279309988754183 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.7783095785529224 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.8895091858800702 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.0902919325906852 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.2895551765738895 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -1.3376888926664023 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.4173402360443164 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.4154834138834067 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.1638202461240532 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.9595363352643582 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.6858076782694276 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.6656280408250455 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6228491427155151 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.6523553620393151 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 175.40; Wave 2 182.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.183584054170497, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.1914893617021276, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 175.399994, "confirmation": 188.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 175.40; Wave 2 182.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 183.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.618019542235564, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8174386920980926, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 175.399994, "confirmation": 183.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 186.90; Wave B 183.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.50; C length 1.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.13\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 186.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.41067314654315, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 183.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.618019542235564, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8174386920980926, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 182.0, "confirmation": 183.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 175.40; Wave 2 182.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.183584054170497, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.1914893617021276, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 175.399994, "confirmation": 188.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 175.40; Wave 2 182.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 183.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.618019542235564, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8174386920980926, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 175.399994, "confirmation": 183.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 75, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.183584054170497, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.1914893617021276, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -2.0679767266591482, "fair_value_gap": -4.834066534561703, "market_activity": -16.701179, "market_dynamics": 0.52378, "relative_strength": -21.381979, "roc30": -10.68935374306022, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 2.1% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.7633555320617909 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.150537634408602 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -7.569138373372546 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -3.909649728234584 } ], "range": { "high_52": 208.36922, "low_52": 168.5, "position_52": 33.86070758344406, "drawdown": -12.655045692449207 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.63100941399171, "average_weekly_range": 2.686156174777792, "active_drawdown": -15.42212885197018 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.183584054170497, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 175.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.153023204484426, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 185.843194, "fair_value": 191.244906, "trend_gap": -2.0679767266591482, "fair_value_gap": -4.834066534561703 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.183584054170497, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 182.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.1914893617021276, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -3.1914893617021276, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "2.1% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-21.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 42.12082972763046, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 6, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 20.0, "median_return": -2.34, "bar_width": 11.7, "average_return": -2.1, "best_return": 0.38, "worst_return": -5.7 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 188.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 175.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 461, "positive_rate": 61.2, "median_return": 1.42, "average_return": 56.53, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 461, "p10": -9.3, "p90": 8.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 58.9, "median_return": 2.57, "average_return": 152.1, "median_excess_return": 0.18, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 13.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 115, "positive_rate": 69.6, "median_return": 7.02, "average_return": 200.03, "median_excess_return": 0.89, "excess_observations": 115, "p10": -21.76, "p90": 26.39 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.6263769230769274, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 34% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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