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{ "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 50.60; Wave 2 41.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 35.35; Wave 3 23.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 35.35; Wave 4 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.18\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 253, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 309.7165829959514, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 35.349998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.138341112187398, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 41.75, "confirmation": 23.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 85 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.75; Wave 2 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 41.75, "confirmation": 23.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.35; Wave 2 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 12.35, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.70623145400594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 253, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 309.7165829959514, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.245055187551586, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.35, "confirmation": 50.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 21.24410172527946, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.35; Wave 2 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 12.35, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.70623145400594, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 253, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 309.7165829959514, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.245055187551586, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.35, "confirmation": 50.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 21.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 13.277563578299661, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 50.60; Wave 2 41.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 35.35; Wave 3 23.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 35.35; Wave 4 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.18\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 253, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 309.7165829959514, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 35.349998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.138341112187398, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 41.75, "confirmation": 23.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 85 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 13.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 9.294294504809763, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.75; Wave 2 27.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 41.75, "confirmation": 23.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 9.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 253, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 50.599998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 309.7165829959514, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 35.349998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.138341112187398, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -27.75883808169338, "fair_value_gap": 7.5406853678330235, "market_activity": -23.295739, "market_dynamics": -1.603139, "relative_strength": -29.336778, "roc30": -14.060028436018952, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 27.8% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -8.877718592964829 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -28.79581076450757 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -30.788799765618315 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 65.85366463414636 } ], "range": { "high_52": 56.5, "low_52": 11.95, "position_52": 34.23120314253648, "drawdown": -51.85840530973451 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 62.7148175696408, "average_weekly_range": 13.150895333632025, "active_drawdown": -46.245055187551586 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 41.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.104674291636453, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 37.651666, "fair_value": 25.292754, "trend_gap": -27.75883808169338, "fair_value_gap": 7.5406853678330235 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.11377245508982, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 27.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.526320000000002, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "27.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-14.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 20 }, "volume_ratio": 25.32871903878471, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 115, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 114, "positive_rate": 49.1, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 2.74, "best_return": 117.16, "worst_return": -31.06 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 111, "positive_rate": 43.2, "median_return": -1.43, "bar_width": 7.1499999999999995, "average_return": 15.61, "best_return": 287.74, "worst_return": -27.07 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 111, "positive_rate": 35.1, "median_return": -8.45, "bar_width": 42.25, "average_return": 16.11, "best_return": 229.55, "worst_return": -45.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 23.75, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 41.75; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 338, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.99, "average_return": 2.37, "median_excess_return": 0.7, "excess_observations": 338, "p10": -11.73, "p90": 19.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 141, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 7.39, "average_return": 8.96, "median_excess_return": 3.33, "excess_observations": 141, "p10": -15.34, "p90": 32.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 9.51, "average_return": 17.05, "median_excess_return": 6.31, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -18.63, "p90": 64.32 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 53.49264141571172, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 27, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 27.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 34% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-11", "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", 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