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true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 7354.87; Wave 5 6440.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 7.93\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 79, "date": "2022-10-21", "price": 74.445251, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.28397227708174, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 194, "date": "2025-01-10", "price": 930.565735, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1150.0001309687302, "weeks": 115, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 566.388611, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.1350240292267, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 5280.0, "confirmation": 6440.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7354.87; Wave 2 6440.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 56% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 7354.866699, "confirmation": 5280.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 566.39; Wave B 5280.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6788.48; C length 1160.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.17\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 566.388611, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.1350240292267, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 6440.0, "confirmation": 5280.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 15.90899227894293, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74.45; Wave 2 566.39.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 930.57; Wave 3 7354.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 930.57; Wave 4 5280.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 856.12, 6788.48, 1160.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 7354.87; Wave 5 6440.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 7.93\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 79, "date": "2022-10-21", "price": 74.445251, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.28397227708174, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 194, "date": "2025-01-10", "price": 930.565735, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1150.0001309687302, "weeks": 115, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 566.388611, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.1350240292267, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 5280.0, "confirmation": 6440.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 15.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.13629459526005, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 566.39; Wave 2 1833.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 2092.85; Wave 3 7354.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 2092.85; Wave 4 5280.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 1526.46, 5521.13, 1160.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 7354.87; Wave 5 6440.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.62\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 566.388611, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.1350240292267, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 235, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 2092.848389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.50749862447367, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 1833.733765, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.38095532203409, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 301.0869429019866, "weeks": 31, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 5280.0, "confirmation": 6440.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 79, "date": "2022-10-21", "price": 74.445251, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.28397227708174, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 194, "date": "2025-01-10", "price": 930.565735, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1150.0001309687302, "weeks": 115, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 566.388611, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.1350240292267, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 33.9287867641055, "fair_value_gap": 312.954886752374, "market_activity": 20.913313, "market_dynamics": -0.92318, "relative_strength": 42.950256, "roc30": 189.77609836910062, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 33.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 15.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 9.618433423236636 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 142.02271821632357 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 459.4811284443847 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7673.777075, "low_52": 1101.236868, "position_52": 81.2283069233113, "drawdown": -16.077833157539306 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 69.47159094791905, "average_weekly_range": 17.640636850431925, "active_drawdown": -12.438929710641654 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 7354.866699, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1198.5548360540747, "weeks": 63, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 4808.525602, "fair_value": 1559.492382, "trend_gap": 33.9287867641055, "fair_value_gap": 312.954886752374 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 5280.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.210799514314896, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 6440.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 21.96969696969697, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "33.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+43.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+20.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+189.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 55.170884864278115, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 109, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 108, "positive_rate": 67.6, "median_return": 7.12, "bar_width": 35.6, "average_return": 7.17, "best_return": 43.55, "worst_return": -28.21 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 99, "positive_rate": 84.8, "median_return": 26.71, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 30.77, "best_return": 132.96, "worst_return": -35.46 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 95, "positive_rate": 89.5, "median_return": 63.94, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 77.12, "best_return": 223.91, "worst_return": -21.64 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5280.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 10, "rising_cycle_percent": 42, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 882, "positive_rate": 59.3, "median_return": 2.44, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 0.77, "excess_observations": 882, "p10": -10.65, "p90": 23.21 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 303, "positive_rate": 67.3, "median_return": 7.61, "average_return": 18.45, "median_excess_return": 4.36, "excess_observations": 303, "p10": -13.83, "p90": 58.9 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 164, "positive_rate": 70.7, "median_return": 13.06, "average_return": 36.43, "median_excess_return": 4.84, "excess_observations": 164, "p10": -14.02, "p90": 120.26 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 18.012422360248447, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 81, "label": "High vulnerability", "tone": "high", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 20, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 33.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Price is 81% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Price is 33.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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