{ "ticker": { "symbol": "WORLD", "name": "UBS Core MSCI World UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 3.9, "latest_open": 3.792, "latest_high": 3.902, "latest_low": 3.7895, "bar_count": 126, "analysis_bar_count": 126, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 2.964, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 96, 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"move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 3.296, "confirmation": 3.9, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 67, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.75; Wave B 3.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.82; C length 0.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.73\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 3.9, "confirmation": 3.296, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 22 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.75; Wave 2 3.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.57; Wave 3 3.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.73\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 3.296, "confirmation": 3.9, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 39 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.75; Wave 2 3.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.57; Wave 3 3.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.73\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 3.296, "confirmation": 3.9, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.75; Wave 2 3.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.57; Wave 3 3.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.73\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 3.296, "confirmation": 3.9, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 83, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 2.7495, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.236842105263163, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 3.572, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.914529914529925, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.371966501047705, "fair_value_gap": 20.588919176977527, "market_activity": 42.92579, "market_dynamics": 0.466908, "relative_strength": -0.806292, "roc30": 9.366236679753227, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 7.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.510185306873437 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.33423362592842 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.952072173667881 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 18.73953417567362 } ], "range": { "high_52": 3.902, "low_52": 3.2695, "position_52": 99.68379446640313, "drawdown": -0.05125576627371153 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.489967567872311, "average_weekly_range": 1.447199925555091, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 3.632233, "fair_value": 3.234128, "trend_gap": 7.371966501047705, "fair_value_gap": 20.588919176977527 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 3.296, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.726763717805158, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.325242718446603, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+42.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 126, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 101.7100121961445, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 28, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 0.7, "bar_width": 3.5, "average_return": 0.19, "best_return": 5.54, "worst_return": -7.64 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 92.0, "median_return": 3.8, "bar_width": 19.0, "average_return": 3.7, "best_return": 8.46, "worst_return": -1.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 84.2, "median_return": 6.04, "bar_width": 30.2, "average_return": 4.96, "best_return": 11.49, "worst_return": -2.82 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 3.90, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3.30; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.487179487179489, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 11, "explanation": "Price is 7.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 99, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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