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"title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 50, "labels": [ { "index": 315, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 267.880005, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.881577302631584, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 318, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 297.519989, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.064649636690886, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 322, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 250.529999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.793893431476299, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 325, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 270.320007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.899256807165824, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 339, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 222.169998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.812225419186227, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 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Price is 12.2% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.03602233393708514 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -14.48093063501915 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -26.917763815789474 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 72.14473999914364 } ], "range": { "high_52": 336.679993, "low_52": 129.059998, "position_52": 44.84635499581819, "drawdown": -34.01152351812008 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 27.31127197235245, "average_weekly_range": 4.319237388725931, "active_drawdown": -26.917763815789474 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 310, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 129.059998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.569804294322884, "weeks": 200, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 325, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 270.320007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.899256807165824, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 310, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 129.059998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.569804294322884, "weeks": 200, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 252.908668, "fair_value": 152.87705, "trend_gap": -12.154059504200152, "fair_value_gap": 45.325932178832595 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 325, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 270.320007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.899256807165824, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 339, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 222.169998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.812225419186227, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -17.812225419186227, "weeks": 14, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "12.2% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-38.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+72.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "mixed", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 340, "confirmed_pivots": 17 }, "volume_ratio": 139.1451797915316, "historical": { 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