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        "label": "10w",
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            "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 267,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 3783.876327,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 3395.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 3018.278809,
        "confirmation": 3783.876327,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3,018.28; Wave 2 3,395.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 3018.278809,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 3783.876327,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 3395.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3018.278809,
          "confirmation": 3783.876327,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3,018.28; Wave 2 3,395.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 3018.278809,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 3783.876327,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 3395.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3018.278809,
          "confirmation": 3783.876327,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3,018.28; Wave 2 3,395.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 3018.278809,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 3783.876327,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 3395.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3018.278809,
          "confirmation": 3783.876327,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 56,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 3018.278809,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 3783.876327,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 3395.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Relative Strength is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 0.3383187333833732,
      "fair_value_gap": 31.679847651342143,
      "market_activity": -15.913546,
      "market_dynamics": -0.074684,
      "relative_strength": 3.908747,
      "roc30": -8.36990936204598,
      "hurst_alignment": 21,
      "hurst_risk": 88
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 0.3% above its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -0.4690706537672237
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -2.161383285302594
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -2.69881837043787
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 13.239763802372616
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 3783.876327,
      "low_52": 2905.123291,
      "position_52": 55.74680131176242,
      "drawdown": -10.277194426920284
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 26.319642202028092,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.1615900491882205,
      "active_drawdown": -10.277194426920284
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 3018.278809,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 3783.876327,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 3018.278809,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.734858753468544,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 3383.552807,
      "fair_value": 2578.22291,
      "trend_gap": 0.3383187333833732,
      "fair_value_gap": 31.679847651342143
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 3783.876327,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 25.365367696221995,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 3395.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -10.277194426920284,
      "weeks": 8,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "0.3% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+3.9",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-15.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-8.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 2,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 23
    },
    "volume_ratio": 39.8037488992326,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 28,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 27,
          "positive_rate": 59.3,
          "median_return": 1.87,
          "bar_width": 9.350000000000001,
          "average_return": 1.32,
          "best_return": 12.5,
          "worst_return": -13.39
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 27,
          "positive_rate": 70.4,
          "median_return": 8.83,
          "bar_width": 44.15,
          "average_return": 5.29,
          "best_return": 18.71,
          "worst_return": -10.01
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 25,
          "positive_rate": 72.0,
          "median_return": 11.41,
          "bar_width": 57.05,
          "average_return": 5.99,
          "best_return": 35.06,
          "worst_return": -29.76
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 3,783.88, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3018.28; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 23,
      "constructive_count": 14,
      "constructive_percent": 61,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 17,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 18,
          "positive_rate": 38.9,
          "median_return": -2.63,
          "average_return": -0.93,
          "median_excess_return": -2.35,
          "excess_observations": 18,
          "p10": -10.18,
          "p90": 13.38
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 18,
          "positive_rate": 55.6,
          "median_return": 1.57,
          "average_return": 1.24,
          "median_excess_return": -0.38,
          "excess_observations": 18,
          "p10": -8.18,
          "p90": 18.17
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 15,
          "positive_rate": 53.3,
          "median_return": 1.24,
          "average_return": 0.52,
          "median_excess_return": -4.96,
          "excess_observations": 15,
          "p10": -20.38,
          "p90": 12.18
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^MXX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-20",
      "earnings_weeks": 3,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 48.25,
      "expected_move": 4.22664037,
      "invalidation_distance": 11.096353195876292,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 48/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 56% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 13,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 88,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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    "close": [
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