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1.6454677469645436 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16832.75; Wave 2 17626.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 19657.34; Wave 3 22250.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 19657.34; Wave 4 20165.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 2824.59, 4623.77, 3865.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 22250.00; Wave 5 24030.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.64\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 187, "date": "2024-11-29", "price": 16832.753906, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.861009280544827, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 201, "date": "2025-03-07", "price": 19657.341797, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.78030764765818, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17626.232422, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.332573935861344, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.232308001504002, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 20165.0, "confirmation": 24030.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 78 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17626.23; Wave 2 20165.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22250.00; Wave 3 24030.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.84\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17626.232422, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.332573935861344, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.232308001504002, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 20165.0, "confirmation": 24030.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17626.23; Wave B 20165.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4623.77; C length 3865.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.84\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17626.232422, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.332573935861344, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.232308001504002, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 24030.0, "confirmation": 20165.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 9 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16832.75; Wave 2 17626.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 19657.34; Wave 3 22250.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 19657.34; Wave 4 20165.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 2824.59, 4623.77, 3865.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 22250.00; Wave 5 24030.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.64\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 187, "date": "2024-11-29", "price": 16832.753906, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.861009280544827, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 201, "date": "2025-03-07", "price": 19657.341797, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.78030764765818, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17626.232422, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.332573935861344, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.232308001504002, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 20165.0, "confirmation": 24030.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 78 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19921.84; Wave B 20165.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2328.16; C length 3865.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.66\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 19921.835938, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.222644101226291, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.686493500125318, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 24030.0, "confirmation": 20165.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 70, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 187, "date": "2024-11-29", "price": 16832.753906, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.861009280544827, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 201, "date": "2025-03-07", "price": 19657.341797, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.78030764765818, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17626.232422, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.332573935861344, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.232308001504002, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.243824820287251, "fair_value_gap": 28.537335525245545, "market_activity": 49.276254, "market_dynamics": 0.99521, "relative_strength": -10.281245, "roc30": 12.184873949579831, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 9.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.000428632661809 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 10.813926677426792 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 12.289719626168225 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.308751145728237 } ], "range": { "high_52": 24330.0, "low_52": 19273.077411, "position_52": 94.06753821676901, "drawdown": -1.2330456226880395 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.506024235871173, "average_weekly_range": 2.911011012656277, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 21996.666667, "fair_value": 18694.957307, "trend_gap": 9.243824820287251, "fair_value_gap": 28.537335525245545 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 20165.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.370786516853933, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 19.166873295313664, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+49.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 20 }, "volume_ratio": 170.11718891112574, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 112, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 111, "positive_rate": 64.0, "median_return": 1.59, "bar_width": 7.95, "average_return": 1.19, "best_return": 11.16, "worst_return": -9.37 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 102, "positive_rate": 74.5, "median_return": 3.5, "bar_width": 17.5, "average_return": 3.57, "best_return": 14.29, "worst_return": -7.62 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 95, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 5.29, "bar_width": 26.45, "average_return": 5.14, "best_return": 17.37, "worst_return": -6.84 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 20165.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 209, "positive_rate": 56.5, "median_return": 0.91, "average_return": 2.59, "median_excess_return": -4.81, "excess_observations": 209, "p10": -7.69, "p90": 15.99 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 67, "positive_rate": 73.1, "median_return": 6.5, "average_return": 9.85, "median_excess_return": -16.83, "excess_observations": 67, "p10": -8.46, "p90": 37.02 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 64.3, "median_return": 8.85, "average_return": 12.79, "median_excess_return": -52.18, "excess_observations": 28, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 40.29 } ], "benchmark": "^KS11", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 16.084061589679568, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 64, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Price is 9.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 76, "explanation": "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", 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