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"Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 11.68; Wave 5 12.08.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.38\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 132, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 6.382583, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.192303044852616, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 9.00314, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.05793845532443, "weeks": 70, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 208, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.067695, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.390208305102439, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 11.68154, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.79402109276565, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 10.712, "confirmation": 12.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.07; Wave 2 10.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.68; Wave 3 12.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.38\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 208, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.067695, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.390208305102439, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 11.68154, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.79402109276565, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 10.712, "confirmation": 12.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.07; Wave B 10.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.61; C length 1.37.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.38\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 208, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.067695, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.390208305102439, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 11.68154, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.79402109276565, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.082, "confirmation": 10.712, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.38; Wave 2 8.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.00; Wave 3 11.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 9.00; Wave 4 10.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.62, 3.61, 1.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 11.68; Wave 5 12.08.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.38\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 132, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 6.382583, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.192303044852616, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 9.00314, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.05793845532443, "weeks": 70, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 208, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.067695, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.390208305102439, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 11.68154, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.79402109276565, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 10.712, "confirmation": 12.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.71; Wave 2 11.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.48; Wave 3 12.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.40\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.478, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.1508588498879755, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 11.010603, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.072111866178777, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.730593319911735, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.010603, "confirmation": 12.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 132, "date": "2023-10-27", "price": 6.382583, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.192303044852616, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 9.00314, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.05793845532443, "weeks": 70, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 208, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.067695, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.390208305102439, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 11.68154, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.79402109276565, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.042486617695749, "fair_value_gap": 36.26359844622055, "market_activity": 61.851708, "market_dynamics": 0.708153, "relative_strength": 9.355091, "roc30": 15.258610672974065, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 7.0% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.951355107713693 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 8.801826415430094 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 10.896900944707221 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 27.126878875189135 } ], "range": { "high_52": 12.134, "low_52": 9.356363, "position_52": 98.12790512223161, "drawdown": -0.42854788198450305 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.120738331476394, "average_weekly_range": 2.2243187777927074, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 11.287107, "fair_value": 8.866638, "trend_gap": 7.042486617695749, "fair_value_gap": 36.26359844622055 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 257, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 10.712, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.299761846468876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.082, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 12.78939507094848, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.4", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+61.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 7, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 20 }, "volume_ratio": 126.71602416815591, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 99, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 98, "positive_rate": 59.2, "median_return": 0.65, "bar_width": 3.25, "average_return": 0.72, "best_return": 10.07, "worst_return": -8.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 78.5, "median_return": 2.96, "bar_width": 14.8, "average_return": 3.58, "best_return": 17.06, "worst_return": -6.63 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 84, "positive_rate": 82.1, "median_return": 8.92, "bar_width": 44.6, "average_return": 7.38, "best_return": 21.07, "worst_return": -10.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 10.71; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 11.339182254593618, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 50, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 8, "explanation": "Price is 7.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 93, "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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