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"structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.99; Wave 2 15.29.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 15.99, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.726884779516356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.13, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.140087554721696, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 15.29, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.051112943116227, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.99, "confirmation": 12.13, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 100 }, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 16.08155570807595, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 16.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.050972317547469, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.035680622283228, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.99; Wave 2 15.29.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 15.99, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.726884779516356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.13, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.140087554721696, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 15.29, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.051112943116227, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.99, "confirmation": 12.13, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 100 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": 7, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 15.99, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.726884779516356, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.13, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.140087554721696, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 15.29, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.051112943116227, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.24987621609554, "fair_value_gap": 29.497168170493822, "market_activity": -2.130351, "market_dynamics": 0.419132, "relative_strength": 0.308616, "roc30": -5.55899286232286, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 5.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 8.439716312056733 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.5206499661475936 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -0.32594524119948315 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -6.222231599317601 } ], "range": { "high_52": 18.556838, "low_52": 11.86, "position_52": 51.21820178418532, "drawdown": -17.604497059251152 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 35.316144824935655, "average_weekly_range": 6.250946355756477, "active_drawdown": -15.841784977576994 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 14.527333, "fair_value": 11.807208, "trend_gap": 5.24987621609554, "fair_value_gap": 29.497168170493822 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-19", "price": 8.650658, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 15.29, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 76.7495605536596, "weeks": 133, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 76.7495605536596, "weeks": 133, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.1", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 67, "history_score": 52, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 134, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 95.65145330811124, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 15, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 3.87, "bar_width": 19.35, "average_return": 5.99, "best_return": 22.93, "worst_return": -12.76 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 20.14, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 11.76, "best_return": 40.19, "worst_return": -14.57 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 64.3, "median_return": 6.91, "bar_width": 34.55, "average_return": 15.36, "best_return": 61.98, "worst_return": -8.45 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 12.13, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 15.99; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 113, "positive_rate": 51.3, "median_return": 0.35, "average_return": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.68, "excess_observations": 113, "p10": -7.52, "p90": 9.26 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 69, "positive_rate": 50.7, "median_return": 0.49, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.26, "excess_observations": 69, "p10": -15.35, "p90": 18.41 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 63, "positive_rate": 50.8, "median_return": 0.9, "average_return": 3.55, "median_excess_return": 0.39, "excess_observations": 63, "p10": -20.07, "p90": 32.86 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.578155657292355, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 51% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", 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