{ "ticker": { "symbol": "CEBZ", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR(Acc)", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 6.859, "latest_open": 6.81, "latest_high": 6.898, "latest_low": 6.784, "bar_count": 122, "analysis_bar_count": 122, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 5.525, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.864253393665157, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 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"2026-07-10", "value": 1.5635242291131646 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4878864651768886 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.454014074317568 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.98; Wave B 5.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.62; C length 0.89.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.55\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.864253393665157, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.61044176706827, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 6.859, "confirmation": 5.972, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.98; Wave 2 5.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 6.60; Wave 3 6.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.55\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.864253393665157, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.61044176706827, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 5.972, "confirmation": 6.859, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.98; Wave 2 5.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.73; Wave 3 6.60.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.73; Wave 4 5.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.75, 1.10, 0.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 6.60; Wave 5 6.86.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.48\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.293060936949622, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 62, "date": "2025-06-06", "price": 5.726, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.979919678714849, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 5.501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.9294446384910873, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.050899836393377, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 5.972, "confirmation": 6.859, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 80 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.98; Wave B 5.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.62; C length 0.89.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.55\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.864253393665157, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.61044176706827, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 6.859, "confirmation": 5.972, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.98; Wave 2 5.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.73; Wave 3 6.60.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.73; Wave 4 5.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.75, 1.10, 0.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 6.60; Wave 5 6.86.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.48\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.293060936949622, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 62, "date": "2025-06-06", "price": 5.726, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.979919678714849, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 5.501, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.9294446384910873, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.050899836393377, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 5.972, "confirmation": 6.859, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 80 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 41, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.864253393665157, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.61044176706827, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.8373323869335145, "fair_value_gap": 20.345135601894988, "market_activity": 76.916314, "market_dynamics": 1.160316, "relative_strength": 6.633108, "roc30": 11.965393405158336, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 5.8% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.554634290790649 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.08821233411397 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.37415073471323 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 20.587201125175813 } ], "range": { "high_52": 6.964, "low_52": 5.498, "position_52": 92.837653478854, "drawdown": -1.507754164273412 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.718673816143173, "average_weekly_range": 2.0644814812161583, "active_drawdown": -1.2240783410138243 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 6.4807, "fair_value": 5.699441, "trend_gap": 5.8373323869335145, "fair_value_gap": 20.345135601894988 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.972, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.569957601453659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 6.859, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.852645679839242, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+76.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 0, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 122, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 289.99598716226564, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 75.6, "median_return": 1.6, "bar_width": 8.0, "average_return": 1.03, "best_return": 5.5, "worst_return": -8.99 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 88.9, "median_return": 3.82, "bar_width": 19.099999999999998, "average_return": 3.78, "best_return": 12.1, "worst_return": -2.32 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 9.63, "bar_width": 48.150000000000006, "average_return": 9.4, "best_return": 15.84, "worst_return": 3.96 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 5.97, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.86; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 27, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 71, "explanation": "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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